Description: This is the abstract for the presentation on long-tail longitudinal modeling of insurance company expenses.

Description: This paper develops credibility using a longitudinal data framework. In a longitudinal data framework, one might encounter data from a cross-section of risk classes towns with a history of insurance claims available for each risk class. For the marginal claims distributions, we use generalized linear models, an extension of linear regression that also encompasses Weibull and Gamma regressions. Copulas are used to model the dependencies over time specifically, this paper is the first to propose using a t-copula in the context of generalized linear models. The t-copula is the copula associated with the multivariate t-distribution like univariate t-distributions, it seems especially suitable for empirical work. Moreover, we show that the t-copula gives rise to easily computable predictive distributions that we use to generate credibility predictors. Like Bayesian methods, our copula credibility prediction methods allow us to provide an entire distribution of predicted claims, not just a point prediction.

Description: Summary of the SOA's Annuity Valuation with Dependent Mortality research report which examines the standard industry practice of assuming independent lives for insurance products that cover multiple lives.

Description: An article in the Expanding Horizons newsletter, Issue 26, published in April 2003 that discusses the Annual Prize to the author or authors writing the best paper to appear in the North American Actuarial Journal, the leading scientific publication of the Society. It announces the winners of the award, Mary R. Hardy for A Regime–Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns,and Phelim P. Boyle, Adam W. Kolkiewicz and Ken Seng Tan, for Valuation of the Reset Options Embedded in Some Equity–Linked Insurance Products.

Description: This presentation develops a micro–level stochastic model for the run–off of automobile insurance claims. The analysis uses policy exposure, claims and payments experience data from vehicle insurance portfolios obtained from a major general insurance company in Singapore. The data are from the General Insurance Association 'GIA' of Singapore, an organization comprising most of the general insurers in Singapore. Modelling the run–off of individual Reported But Not Settled [RBNS] claims is the very aim of the work. The presenters focus on the following components of the development process: the time to an event, the conditional event type, the conditional payment type if any, and the conditional severity if any. They distinguish three types of events: settlement without any payments made during development, settlement with a payment and a payment without settlement. Given that a payment is to be made, the conditional payment type model describes the probability that it will be one of three claim types, or any possible combination of them. The conditional severity component describes the claim amount structure according to the combination of types paid. The presenters provide appropriate statistical models for each component and calibrate them to the available data. These building blocks are consequently used to predict the future development of open RBNS claims.

Description: This paper introduces density estimation for functions of observations. The nonparametric density estimates are introduced and certain computational issues are discussed and a central limit theorem for the estimator is provided. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: This paper focuses on the fact that life and annuity reserves that are determined from discounted case flows mask the dynamic nature of interest rates. To study this effect in a stochastic interest environment, the authors look at a change in discounted reserves. By looking at the appropriate measure of change, the paper explores potential short-term consequences of changes in the interest environment.

Description: This paper addresses the extension of the theory of life contingencies to a stochastic interest environment and its application to solvency valuation and surplus. A discussion of the paper follows. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1990, Vol. 42.

Description: This is the abstract for the paper on a household's life insurance demand - a multivariate two parts model.

Description: Presented at October 1986 Annual Meeting. This session discussion is about the use of simulation, or Monte Carlo, techniques to analyze complex insurance models such as estimating reserves, solvency considerations, and estimation of mortality and distribution of aggregate losses with the aid of a computer program