Description: After more than a decade of a prolonged low interest rate environment, long-term Treasury rates have started to increase with higher volatility. While it is generally agreed that a modest increase in interest rates and inflation is beneficial to the life insurance industry, interest rate risk remains a significant challenge for life insurance industry to manage its long duration liabilities, especially under volatile interest rate environments. Learn how to proactively manage interest rate risk and improve capital efficiency through the cash flow based strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework. Discover practical examples of how to combine asset allocation with derivatives to manage tail risk and liability convexity.

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: According to the Actuarial Standards Board’s Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 49 (ASOP 49), actuarially sound Medicaid managed care capitation rates will include a provision for underwriting gain in order to provide compensation for the risks assumed by an MCO. However, there is no generally accepted method for quantifying underwriting gain in managed Medicaid capitation rates. This article discusses a new model developed to address this void and calculate underwriting gain. The model was developed by researching existing financial literature and performing a statistical analysis of industry data to build out a framework that can be leveraged to estimate underwriting gain.

Description: This paper reviews the general methodology of capture-recapture procedures and describes some applications such as estimating the size of the undercount in censuses and estimating the number of duplicate records on in a database. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2006.

Description: The surge in interest rates over the past few years presents opportunities for life insurers to enhance their Asset and Liability Management (ALM) positions through asset rebalancing to narrow the duration gap and secure higher risk-adjusted yields. This webcast introduces a robust, efficient and readily-executable, liability-driven strategic asset allocation (SAA) framework and implementation considerations. At the conclusion of the webcast, attendees will learn about the key objectives and practical considerations for a successful SAA.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: In this article, we talk to Lei Rao-Knight, FSA, Vice President and Actuary at Prudential Financial. Lei discusses her model development experience in the Modeling Center of Excellence.

Description: "Can you answer the question 'what are the chances we will lose more than $1 million next year?' without saying 'it depends'? If you miss a projection, can you quantify the chances that the miss was due to random variation vs. an incorrect projection? ten in as presenters demonstrate how to answer these questions and others using total risk analysis. Total risk analysis includes quantifying both the random variation risk and the projection risk associated with actuarial functions like pricing and reserving. After attending this session, you will be able to describe total risk analysis, apply total risk analysis to many actuarial functions."

Description: This article is the first installment of a three-part series that aims to provide an overview of ESGs and will focus on the general motivation for stochastic modeling, its advantages and its limitations. Future articles will further break down the key factors of ESGs and the application of these factors to better understand the Academy Interest Rate Generator (AIRG).

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. In this Teaching Session the instructor discussed the importance of making sure the correct inferences were drawn from stochastic testing exercises. Topics included: 1. Applying the assumption of a normal distribution. 2. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, a population mean. 3. Drawing inferences about, and creating confidence intervals around, tail percentiles. 4. Certifying anticipated mortality under XXX in a mathematically concise way.