Description: This paper presents a new methodology for obtaining fast algorithms and closed form solutions for pricing callable bonds in continuous time models. Results are directly applicable to regulatory scenario testing, immunization and market value accounting.

Description: This presentation introduces the Threshold Life Table as a solution to the problem of modeling mortality for extreme ages. This method is based on extreme value theory, and it avoids the need to extrapolate beyond an arbitrary age. This method produces an omega, the highest attainable age, without it being chosen arbitrarily.

Description: Presentation at the 41st Actuarial Research Conference held on August 10-12, 2006 in Montreal, QC. This paper considers the problem of extending regime-switching models for asset returns to the situation with multiple asset markets. The conditional tail expectation CTE is highly sensitive to the assumed dependence structure between the regime models for the different markets. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to illustrate the cost of misspecification. The authors find that the model most commonly used by practitioners is worse than all of the alternatives that they investigate.

Description: This paper proposes the use of stochastic compartment model methods for estimating both the current direct and current indirect costs of specific cancers and for forecasting future direct and indirect costs. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1982, Vol. 34.

Description: The panel demonstrates a technique that can help set confidence intervals regarding future rate increases used to satisfy the NAIC rate stabilization model. Specific topics include creating a stochastic model, deciding which variables are deterministic vs. stochastic, developing probability distributions for the stochastic variables, running the model and evaluating the reasonableness of results. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1, Session 21

Description: The article describes the key components of actuarial model, leading practices in designing them, and characteristics of well-built models.

Description: This article provides an overview of the different types of real world interest rate scenarios that practitioners use in the life insurance industry and explores different approaches to building those generators.

Description: Looking for volunteer organizations to help Academy test new modeling techniques for PBR.

Description: This work investigates the use of a statistical approach to calculate the incurred but not reported IBNR reserve directly. This allows for the reserve to be estimated in one step, without completion factors, and it provides a confidence interval around the estimate of IBNR as well.

Description: Presentation discussing modeling of daily and hourly rainfall, both occurrence and amount. These distributions would be needed to price derivative or insurance contracts involving rainfall amounts.