Description: This research report addresses two purposes: [1] to incorporate phase transitions into a copula framework, and [2] to calculate the probability of defaulting in the context of a portfolio of correlated mortgages when a contagion effect exists. Understanding and measuring the effects that contagion has on the probability of defaulting, for both single assets and portfolios of assets, are crucial to collateralized debt obligation [CDO] markets.

Description: This paper focuses on the equity unit annuity popularly termed the variable annuity. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper presents a theoretical treatment of the determination of the cost of vesting by a method not hitherto demonstrated to the Society. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1966, Vol. 18, Pt. 1, No. 52.

Description: This predictive modeling for life insurers paper, “Predictive Model Learning of Stochastic Simulations” by John Hegstrom is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: This paper proposes to put the environment into financial markets. It explains how to do it, and why the financial approach is practically the only one able to stop and invert environmental degradation. The author concentrates on deforestation which is the largest environmental problem in the third world, and explains how to start the project and what kind of optimization problems should be solved for applications of the project.

Description: Proposes setting premiums such that inflation and age could change the premium over time, rather than prefunding. The value may be to change the approach to pricing LTC and improve the risk.

Description: In this article, the authors introduce a new policy-making model for pension plan funding which openly represents the uncertainty. The word 'policy' is used here to indicate a strategy which is intended to be followed most [but not necessarily all] of the time. In unusual circumstances, the policy will have to be modified at the end of the year to retain qualification. However, the frequency with which this remedial action is needed is controllable by the actuary [unlike the method of using expected values]. The simple substitution of expected values of random quantities produces an unknown frequency of last minute remedial actions at possibly disastrous investment costs to the pension plan. However, with this paper's techniques, once the actuary acknowledges the uncertainty associated with the various aspects of the pension plan, he/she can explicitly trade off the costs associated with remedial actions, tax penalties, etc. with the investment returns in order to meet the pension plan goals. The method that this paper introduces is a new Chance-Constrained Programming approach to selecting annual contribution levels and asset allocation [holding other factors fixed] that the authors believe will better fit the employer's goals while recognizing the many risks and constraints associated with defined benefit plans. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, Vol. 3.

Description: The administrators of Social Security offset-type defined benefit plans commonly encounter two difficulties when attempting to calculate the Primary Insurance Amount 'PIA' offset. The first difficulty is in obtaining the Social Security earnings history. The second difficulty is in performing the calculation itself. This paper explores the possibility of substituting a variant of the employee's final average salary for his or her Social Security Average Indexed Monthly Earnings 'AIME'. The acceptability of this substitution is then critiqued with illustrations. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1980, Vol. 32.

Description: Traditional methods of addressing reserves and liabilities have failed to cope with the problems of escalating claim costs, frequent rate increases, and different opinions as to what liabilities should be recognized. This paper reexamines these issues, discusses shortcomings of current methods and proposes a new approach to the total subject. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: This paper proposes the use of stochastic compartment model methods for estimating both the current direct and current indirect costs of specific cancers and for forecasting future direct and indirect costs. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1982, Vol. 34.