Description: Feature article discussing the usefulness of Lorenz and Lift curves.

Description: A review of the Johns Hopkins Data Science Specialization courses with special emphasis on how they may be useful to actuaries.

Description: In this article we examine the benefits and drawbacks of using a global surrogate of a black-box model. Are surrogates a comfortable middle ground that provide insurers high predictive power as well as model explainability?

Description: Read the April 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism published by the Predictive Analytics & Futurism Section of the Society of Actuaries.

Description: The Delphi Method is discussed in detail. The method attempts to filter out the consensus bias that can result from societal forces by employing a technique whereby an anonymous collection of opinions is used, supplemented by feedback loops that can be used to influence outcomes.

Description: The author explains how he used judgmental forecasting techniques to develop a dynamic lapse assumption. He defines the techniques and provides readers with a step-by-step process.

Description: Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases inherent in human judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this article is to help readers with these goals.

Description: Given the limits of classical actuarial modeling and forecasting techniques, this newsletter contains articles discussing several ways to supplement your toolset.

Description: This article provides a brief introduction to forecasting methods that are potentially relevant to actuarial work.

Description: The author discusses the two-part presentation on complexity science tools at the SOA Annual Meeting October 2010. He explains that presentations went back to basics with explanations about the difference between modeling tools used to employ deterministic methods for classical actuarial models.