Description: Editorial for the May 2019 issue of Predictive Analytics & Futurism newsletter.

Description: Feature article discussing futurism and a study that contains in-depth descriptions of the Delphi and TIA methods; listings of the rationales and thought processes, the plausible future developments that could influence the values of these four economic variables and the resulting “fan of possibilities” for the values of these variables

Description: A Delphi Research Study of Long-Term Care Financing Solutions." Two members of the Project Oversight Group discuss the reasons for the study and the Delphi method and summarize the results of the study.

Description: Neural networks have fallen only to rise again twice. The latest incarnation borrows much from the past but adds elements to support deep learning. This article demonstrates the state of the art in deep neural network programming.

Description: A significant fraction of insurance risk is characterized by the tail of the claims distribution, where we have much less data to model probabilities accurately. Ignoring the tails can lead to underpricing of tail risk and mispricing. Estimation of the tails can be complex due to a bias-variance tradeoff--the further out we go into the tail the more accurately we can model the extreme tail (lower bias) but the less data we have (increased variance). The statistical tools of Extreme Value Theory can be leveraged to more accurately estimate both the incidence and the severity of extreme events given that they occur. using the Generalized Pareto Distribution.

Description: History of Big Data, and approaches to cope with it. The author suggests that actuaries have been using similar methods for a long time; but need to get up to speed on the newer terms and variations.

Description: In Complexity: A Guided Tour, readers are given a short history lesson on the roots of dynamical systems theory, chaos and prediction.

Description: Specifies 6 rules which help shape not only good crime-scene analysis, but good futures practice, as well. These rules address project management and control.

Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a refresher on regression and times series models so that actuaries will feel more comfortable building forecasting models.

Description: The Future of Insurance is described, as seen by some heads of start-up FinTech companies.