Description: Are Your Scenarios on Target?From Risks and Rewards Newsletter, August 2005, Issue No. 47. Actuaries are faced with the dilemma of how to incorporate advances in insurance products and modeling technology into their work. Increasingly, this means looking at a large number of potential outcomes using stochastic simulations.

Description: In 2003, the American Academy of Actuaries Life Capital Adequacy Subcommittee LCAS published a set of 10,000 stochastic scenarios that was intended to be used to support the publication, “Recommended Approach for Setting Regulatory Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Variable Products with Guarantees Excluding Index Guarantees.” The primary purpose of this article is to illustrate statistical measures that can be used to evaluate stochastic simulations.

Description: Derives appropriate hedge ratios for CPPI strategies, taking into account discrete hedge times and market dislocations (gap risk).

Description: This article uses the example of a bullet or general account GIC to determine the fair value of liabilities.

Description: Proposes alternatives for estimating the long term interest returns in Indexed Universal Life products. Defends expected return of 20%-45% on hedge budgets.

Description: John Shuttleworth explains why our exam syllabus needs updated and shares examples of inconsistencies in the material and actual financial economics. Edward Friend responds to this article.

Description: The author refers to a separate article in this edition of Risks and Rewards, in which Babbel, Gold and Merrill provide an excellent exposition of three approaches to present-valuing a series of risky cash flows and provide several insights into the way modern finance theory deals with risk. The purpose of this article is to bring these insights to the world of insurance risks and view them in relation to existing actuarial techniques. The author also discusses direct discounting and the actuarial appraisal method and their consistency.

Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: The author notes that “current market value is highly relevant, but its accuracy is limited. Historical accounting, on the other hand, is highly accurate, but is of little relevance.” The article then goes on to discuss two leading methods for performing fair valuation of liabilities: the actuarial appraisal method and the option pricing method, and how they can be reconciled.

Description: Recaps the evolution of VA products and hedging programs. Reflects on strategic considerations that contributed to relative performance in this market.