Description: Almost half of recent FDA approvals have been for orphan drugs. This trend is expected to continue in 2023. Orphan drugs are priced more than 30 times higher than non-orphan drugs, therefore their cost burden in aggregate has the potential to overwhelm the budgets of payers, especially that of smaller health plans. Hear how the cost impact analysis for smaller health plans require different considerations than for a larger health plan when modeling the impact of rare diseases.

Description: This paper provides a method for estimating long-tailed unpaid losses from paid loss development using trended generalized bondy development. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Learn more about the predictive modeling that was applied to industry data for the lapse and mortality experience in the post-level term period. Novel approaches were taken to model the shock lapse, subsequent lapse, and mortality experience. Observe a demonstration of the Tableau tool, which was built to allow users to analyze data on their own.

Description: In this presentation, actuaries and data scientists from Cleveland Clinic and Milliman discuss the development of a sepsis prediction model using machine learning. Presented with a unique challenge of handling massive amounts of data for near real-time risk scoring, the team took their model development to the cloud and delivered a product in less than a week through a unique virtual engagement.

Description: The Introduction to Modeling: Summer Boot Camp series provides an overview of modeling topics and techniques aimed at the beginner modeler. This interactive series is comprised of five 90-minute sessions with opportunities to discuss the topics in small break-out groups.

Description: How might retirement income strategies be designed, and their suitability assessed, when retirees may differ substantially in their objectives, preferences and personal circumstances? This webcast provides a wide-ranging overview of the key elements involved in formulating retirement strategies, drawing on the “Primer on Retirement Income Strategy Design and Evaluation” that was recently released by the SOA. It will cover three types of income objective – income floor, income target and income optimization – and how they imply different retirement strategies along with a different set of metrics to evaluate outcomes. It will also touch on: key member attributes to account for; the nature of income risk; approaches to investing and drawing down on available assets to generate income; and how stochastic modelling can support the analysis. This webcast should deliver something of interest for all attendees, regardless of prior familiarity with strategies for retirement.

Description: 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The panelists discussed applying economic scenario generators in the life insurance business, a particular generator that has been developed at SS&C Technology Company, a way of reducing the number of scenarios to get the maximum amount of information, and what to look for in a software vendor.

Description: In this article, the interviewers will discuss the pros and cons of centralized modeling function vs a business unit based modeling function. Their experience will help us in identifying factors in contributing to a successful centralized model function and understand how to set expectation with modeling stakeholders.

Description: Edited Content: Discover more about key Economic Scenario Generation (ESG) topics that are relevant for actuarial applications. Expect a focus on risk-neutral / market-consistent ESGs, like setting long term assumptions and scenario reduction. Long tern assumptions will focus on a basic introduction to challenges in deriving long term assumptions and key concepts to better understand how those are set. Come explore a basic overview of scenario reduction techniques and challenges as well as common sense criteria to address the reasonableness of the reduction. Provided Content: The overall objective would be to introduce key ESG (Economic Scenario Generation) topics to actuaries, with two topics below that are relevant for actuarial applications. We intend to focus on risk-neutral / market-consistent ESGs. 1. Setting long term assumptions o A basic introduction to challenges in deriving long term assumptions and key concepts to better understand how those are set 2. Scenario reduction o A basic overview of scenario reduction techniques and challenges as well as common sense criteria to address the reasonableness of the reduction

Description: This paper reviews the general methodology of capture-recapture procedures and describes some applications such as estimating the size of the undercount in censuses and estimating the number of duplicate records on in a database. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2006.