Description: Investment Fallacies: Gambler’s Fallacy: Probability of Reversion

Description: Invest Fallacies: Active management overall performs different than passive management

Description: Investment Fallacies: Future Equity Returns

Description: This article provides an overview of the financial results of managed care plans over time using a collection of the NAIC financial statements.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Bitcoin Fallacies

Description: This paper investigates the use of models of dependent mortality for determining annuity values. We discuss a broad class of parametric models using a bivariate survivorship function called a copula. Using data from a large insurance company to illustrate our methods, we calculate maximum likelihood estimates to calibrate the rnodel.

Description: All claim reserve systems endeavor to derive estimates of the unpaid portion of claims which have been incurred over a given period of time, making use of information on numbers of claims and amounts paid on claims as of the valuation date. In this paper, a claim reserve system is described. While the system does produce the traditional type of single-point estimates of claim reserves, it also provides the user with frequency distributions of claim reserves

Description: In Volume LXXV of the Proceedings there appeared a paper entitled Risk Loads for Insurers by Feldblum. Confidence intervals for the betas in TABLE 4 [Profit Margins and Their Standard Deviations by Line of Business] of this paper can be generated using the assumption of underlying normal distributions. However, bootstrapping operational or not for interval estimates does not require the normality assumption. The method of operational bootstrapping does not use random numbers. The method for the 4-dimensional case, used to generate the interval estimates in the current paper, is a natural generalization of the bivariate case. I use operational bootstrapping to generate interval estimates for Betas shown in the TABLE 5.

Description: Investment Fallacies: Simulation of Long-Term Stock Returns: Fat-Tails and Mean Reversion

Description: Investment Fallacies: Extended periods of robust macroeconomic growth are healthy for investing.