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Best Methods and Practices in Judgmental Forecasting
Forecasting Given the ubiquity of judgmental forecasting, it is important to understand the potential biases ... judgment—the traps that can snare us—and to learn methods and best practices to avoid them. The aim of this ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Understanding Autoregressive Model for Time Series
Understanding Autoregressive Model for Time Series In this article, we are going to discuss the ... Series In this article, we are going to discuss the AR model by making connections to time-dependent ...- Authors: Dihui Lai, Bingfeng Lu
- Date: Jun 2017
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Deterministic models; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Predictive Analytics
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Why Consider a Delphi Study?
Why Consider a Delphi Study? By Ben Wolzenski In the December 2017 Predictive Analytics and Futurism News-letter ... Council member Bryon Robidoux wrote about the TED talk, “The Human Insights Missing from Big Data,” by ...- Authors: Ben Wolzenski
- Date: Apr 2018
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge>General business skills
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Predictive Modeling
observable in the future for the purpose of the forecast. βj are coefficients to be estimated in the model-building ... model-building process. εi is the error term, which is very important for modeling, but usually not so for ...- Authors: Qichun Xu
- Date: Jul 2013
- Competency: Professional Values>Practice expertise; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Data mining; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Forecasting Judgment: The Netflix Prize and Collaborative Filtering
Forecasting Judgment: The Netflix Prize and Collaborative Filtering Can the aggregate results from a ... single person’s opinion? Forecasting of this type commonly uses a set of techniques known as collaborative ...- Authors: Michael Lindstrom
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up, by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell
Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom Up, by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert ... from the Bottom Up, by Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell Book review of: Social Science from the Bottom ...- Authors: Ben Wolzenski
- Date: Jul 2012
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge>Actuarial theory in business context
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Getting Started with Deep Learning and TensorFlow
Getting Started with Deep Learning and TensorFlow A description of how to use Deep Learning ... with Deep Learning and TensorFlow A description of how to use Deep Learning and TensorFlow Futurism;Predictive ...- Authors: Jeff T Heaton
- Date: Dec 2016
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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The Actuarial Road Not Taken - Jeff Sagarin's Sports Ratings
The Actuarial Road Not Taken - Jeff Sagarin's Sports Ratings Jeff Sagarin is one of the most well-known ... well-known figures in the sports analytics world, with his sports ratings appearing in USA Today for over ...- Authors: Anders Larson
- Date: Jul 2016
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge>Actuarial theory in business context; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Actuarial Profession>Alternative careers; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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From the Chairperson: Want to Win an iPad?
From the Chairperson: Want to Win an iPad? A summary of a new feature in the newsletter: a forecasting ... application contest. The Forecasting and Futurism Section will award a 16GB iPad to the section member who ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting