Description: COVID has washed over healthcare like a tsunami. According to Medicare actuaries, trends have been turned upside down in 2021, but will reverse back in 2023 as medical costs rebound. It is more prudent to base projections on long run trends for a period after the storm, extrapolating from 2026 forward, leaving the intervening turbulence (years 2022 -2025) mostly unspecified.

Description: Learn more about the reasons for provider consolidations and shortages as well as their impact on health care morbidity.

Description: Social Determinants of Health (SDOH) include the social and physical conditions in which people are born, live and work on a daily basis. This project advances a growing body of literature to inform the ongoing optimization of population health and payment models.

Description: Using data from the Health & Retirement Study [HRS], a two-part medical claim prediction model is estimated for a cohort of survey respondents approaching Medicare-eligibility age. A High Deductible Health Plan [HDHP] with a companion Health Savings Account [HSA] is applied to simulated claims streams to model the build-up of HSA assets over the near-retirement years. Results show that the HSA is a grossly inadequate savings vehicle to provide for retiree medical care expenses at age 65. Moreover, HSA adequacy worsens exponentially with diminishing health status. Based on this simulation, it is apparent that Baby Boomers cannot adequately provide for the costs of medical care in retirement using HSAs exclusively.

Description: How does where you live impact your health? The following research considers this question through the lens of social determinants of health (SDOH), which are factors relating to where you live or work that may impact your health. In the United States, there are geographical differences in SDOH which contribute to wide disparities in health status and outcomes. In particular, individuals who are negatively affected by SDOH may have an increased burden of disease, leading to a relatively high total cost of care and worse quality of life.

Description: Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD) affects many lives and has a large impact on health systems around the world. To better understand and predict costs for insurance plan members with CKD in the United States, we built a new model of their individual costs. Our model is the first to explicitly model both the CKD stage transition process and the distribution of costs given those stages.

Description: In this paper, the authors created a mathematical model which reflects typical relativities by age, duration of disablement, and deferment period for disability risk. The paper is followed by discussions submitted by various reviewers.

Description: How does where you live impact your health? The following research considers this question through the lens of social determinants of health (SDOH), which are factors relating to where you live or work that may impact your health. In the United States, there are geographical differences in SDOH which contribute to wide disparities in health status and outcomes. In particular, individuals who are negatively affected by SDOH may have an increased burden of disease, leading to a relatively high total cost of care and worse quality of life.

Description: Research report measuring the annual frequency of medical errors in the United States and the total measurable cost to the United States economy of these errors.

Description: This project would update the Medicaid underwriting model and report to reflect emerging factors that materially impact financial results and Medicaid Managed Care Organization (MCO) risks and incorporate additional up-to-date rate setting and MCO financial data, as well as any new insights within the accompanying report.