Description: Research project that reviewed and inventoried the range of quality and efficiency measures that demonstrate the performance of hospitals and physicians. Besides outlining key areas of consideration for quality and efficiency measurement, this report also describes future opportunities for actuaries and other health professionals interested in this evolving area. The inventory part of this report is in a separate document.

Description: Report from research project that reviewed and inventoried the range of quality and efficiency measures that demonstrate the performance of hospitals and physicians. Besides outlining key areas of consideration for quality and efficiency measurement, this report also describes future opportunities for actuaries and other health professionals interested in this evolving area. The inventory part of the report is in a separate document.

Description: This paper uses contingent claims analysis to evaluate portfolios of vulnerable private loan guarantees and investigate their risk diversification properties.

Description: This paper explores the principles upon which experience-rated group insurance currently is based and discusses the question of whether or not these principles are sound. Followed by discussion papers submitted by several authors

Description: This paper outlines a method of parametric modeling that may be used to produce forecasts and forecast intervals that will convey a measure of the reliance that may be placed on the forecasts. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: Discusses smaller company issues: retention limits policies, choosing type of company to reinsure with and basis for reinsurance, use of catastrophe and stop-loss coverages, and simplified reinsurance administrative methods.

Description: In December 1997, the Society of Actuaries held a conference whose focus was actuarial and financial modeling. During the course of that conference, one of the speakers mentioned a number of technologies his firm was using for modeling, which were either unfamiliar or only vaguely familiar to some of the audience. The purpose of this paper is to define each of the technologies mentioned during that presentation and to briefly describe their distinguishing characteristics. The technologies discussed in this paper are statistical pattern recognition [SPR], neural networks [NNs], genetic algorithms [GAs], simulated annealing, fractal analysis, chaos theory, rule induction, data fusion algorithms [DFAs], data compression, fuzzy logic, case-based reasoning, and expert systems.

Description: When fitting a model to any data, there is some uncertainty about which model is best. Green [1995] quantifies this uncertainty through the Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo [RJMCMC] method. When using the RJMCMC method in a regime-switching situation, the chain determines the optimal number of regimes by jumping between various possibilities. This method gives each model its posterior probability of being the best. After an overview of the methodology, the authors apply it to various datasets and discuss the applications in modern actuarial science.

Description: This is presentations slides summarizing the many concepts presented in the research paper. “When Black Swans Aren’t: Holistically Training Management to Better Recognize, Assess, and Respond to Extreme Events”, by Guntram Fritz Albin Werther and Thomas Herget.