Description: Analyze the market volatility behavior in context with historical extreme events during this webcast. There will be a focus on understanding volatility clustering and relationships, both contemporary and temporal, in addition to key economic and capital market variables. You'll also learn from a comprehensive attribution analysis, which uses economic data, asset data, retail investor data and event data as explanatory variables. Dive into investment-related Reddit comments used to capture features of retail investors and tree-based models, including Random Forests and Gradient Boosting Machines to justify changes in volatility modeling. Expect this webcast to end with an example of liability-driven investment optimization that illustrates the potential impact of increased volatility assumption, how to adopt stochastic volatility models, how to reflect volatility clustering and return jumps.

Description: This paper focuses on business risks rather than market, credit and operational risks. The author proposes a bottom-up approach for modelling and measuring business risk where the dynamic of the underlying earnings is described in a continuous-time model.

Description: Much of the work performed by disability insurance actuaries depends on the availability of accurate and detailed data, which is not always as simple as it sounds. Explore a variety of data challenges faced by disability actuaries, along with potential solutions. Potential topics include finding relevant data, the impact of poor data on valuation work, the impact of new privacy rules, and the potential bias in the data used to develop predictive models.

Description: This paper presents best upper and lower bounds on the expected value of an insurance payment under the terms of a contract written on a random loss with known moments. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: Emerging Applications of ESG Methods offers ground-up insights on cutting edge applications of economic scenario generation. The course will focus on the incorporation of climate change risk in scenario modeling and investment applications of ESGs. The following topics will be covered: Approaches to climate risk modeling. Climate risk is very different than classical financial economic risk. Radical uncertainty is amenable to scenario analysis and lack of data. Building special deterministic scenarios that go beyond NGFS requirements as well as bespoke scenarios. Holistic Approach to Climate Risk Modeling. Overview of different Climate Risk Modeling Applications. Use of ESG scenarios for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). Liquidity risk management.

Description: The author comments on the article Exposure Formulas Based on the Assumption of Uniform Distribution of Deaths written by T.N.E. Greville.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that complements the existing research on optimal reinsurance by proposing another model for the determination of the optimal reinsurance design.

Description: This paper compares percentile estimates of a large number of cash flow testing scenarios, where only a very small number fall in the ruin tail, by parametric and non-parametric methods.

Description: This dissertation is about methods for assessing mortality risk in regard to insurance and annuity transactions. Although the basic methods and formulas are general, most of the applications made here deal with life annuity transactions, with particular emphasis on pension situations.

Description: This paper develops and discusses various relations between the Uniform Death Distribution and the Balducci curve. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE 1980, VOL. 2.