Description: The well-known examples of predictive modeling “successes” are numerous. Perhaps less widely recognized is the myriad of ways in which a predictive model can fail to perform as expected, often due to misconceptions or misrepresentations on the part of the analyst. This article, which is intended for a general actuarial audience, focuses on three such pitfalls. By understanding these three common pitfalls, readers may guard against them within their own work, teams, and organizations.

Description: A discussion on using the Cox Proportional Hazards Model in developing a predictive underwriting model that produces a mortality multiplier for each individual.

Description: A discussion about how many models can address the over fitting issues caused by too many variables by regularization, variable selection is still meaningful.

Description: Reflections on SOA delphi study released Oct 2005

Description: This article discusses techniques used to create risk scores to help determine appropriate primary care panel sizes for a provider organization.

Description: Feature article discussing the usefulness of Lorenz and Lift curves.

Description: This article takes the reader on a speculative trip to the not too distant future to explore a hypothetical new life insurance company that has completely reinvented the way it does business, and explores some of the potential benefits to consumers and the company’s stakeholders.

Description: Identifies current trends and considerations when setting the mortality improvement assumption for individual life insurance in the US.

Description: Describes the predictive analytics revolution taking place in the insurance industry