Description: This is the second part of a 2 part series on Real options analysis (ROA). This article looks into the limitations of using financial option theory when doing real options analysis with projects that are long-dated and uncertain, such as: 1. First-degree homogeneity, 2. Uncertainty must derive from Brownian motion, and 3. Risk neutrality.

Description: Presents a step-by-step methodology for calculating confidence intervals for IBNR estimates derived using the Averaqe PMPM method. It is a companion article to the January 2023 Health Watch article presenting the Average PMPM method for generating point estimates of IBNR with zero claims runout.

Description: This article, Spreadsheet Controls Add Risk Resilience, spotlights why spreadsheets have stood the test of time and how they help contribute to an actuary’s success. It also discusses common causes of data integrity issues relative to spreadsheets. And, offers insight into controls that can be utilized to helps actuaries solve these issues and ensure the accuracy and consistency of the data on which they base their analysis.

Description: This article discusses the ways reinsurers support ceding companies: 1. Sharing morbidity risk. 2. Sharing other risks such as return on investment. 3. Sharing of expertise such as providing underwriting advice. 4. Sharing financial resources. 5. Sharing the role of consumer protection.

Description: The widening gap in life span between high- and low-income Americans may be eroding the progressivity of Social Security retirement benefits. Differential longevity trends have had the effect of raising lifetime benefits for high earners but not for low earners. Social Security’s long-term financial problems result in part from an increase in average life expectancy driven by wealthier people living longer, and, thereby, collecting more benefits. Policymakers should not use funding shortfalls attributable to these trends as an excuse to cut monthly benefits alike for those who have gained (high earners) and for those who haven’t (low earners).

Description: The article documents the efficacy of infra-low frequency neurofeedback regarding how it improves patient no show rates, decreases mental health symptoms by 40% or more, and self-harm and suicidal ideations.

Description: Hot Topics in Setting Pension Return Assumptions is the third in a series, following Mathematics of Pension Return Assumption and Inflation, focusing on Effects, Forecasts, and Role in Pension Valuations. What time horizon is more appropriate for Capital Market Assumption (CMA) forecasts: mid-term or long-term time horizon, or a blend of both? How do we map the asset classes of a plan's own investment policy to the asset classes of investment forecasters' CMAs? If we use asset-smoothing for valuation assets, should we use market-driven expected returns or smoothed/average versions of them?

Description: Article reviews the data a year into the unwinding of continuous coverage provisions in Medicaid, the impact on enrollment counts, how capitation rates have been adjusted, and compares those results to what has been modeled with the SOA Mediciad Unwinding model.

Description: This article provides an overview of activities that should be considered by an actuary when validating a predictive model. It describes several components to consider when validating a predictive model and provides an examination of various methodologies that can be implemented in the validation process.

Description: Since the international financial crisis, accounting standards have become an important part of financial supervision rules, which objectively requires us to study the reform and development of accounting standards from the perspective of financial stability. Since the release of IFRS17 in 2017, the research and discussion of IFRS17 in the insurance industry has focused on technical details and implementation, while the economic impact and pros and cons analysis of IFRS17 are few. As a result, the industry's understanding of IFRS17 is not comprehensive enough, and there are still many disputes, and no industry consensus has been formed. In the future, the insurance industry should strengthen the research and analysis of IFRS17 from the perspective of financial stability, deepen the understanding and cognition of IFRS17, and improve the ability to control and use IFRS17.