Description: The CAS is pleased to present its Research Paper, “Users’ Guide to Economic Scenario Generation in Property-Casualty Insurance”. Although there are cases in the literature about the use of economic scenario generators (ESGs) in the property casualty industry, they are far more commonly used for life insurance companies. Our hope is that this paper will serve as a comprehensive guide to the implementation of ESGs in the non-life space and spark interest in research into new applications of ESGs.

Description: The importance of financial wellness has been increasingly recognized in the last few years. More organizations are sponsoring programs to assist people in different stages of their life.

Description: In this paper we investigate three investment-consumption problems for a risk averse investor: i an investment only problem that involves utility from only terminal wealth, ii an investment-consumption problem that involves utility from only consumption, and iii an extended investment-consumption problem that involves utility from both consumption and terminal wealth. We model these problems under a multiperiod setup that incorporates three types of uncertainties: the economic environment uncertainty, the asset return uncertainty, and the mortality uncertainty. By using dynamic programming, analytical expressions of the optimal investment consumption strategies to these problems are derived. Some economic implications on these results are also discussed.

Description: Actuaries are increasingly being asked to incorporate Economic Scenario Generators into their work. Whether it be a Risk Neutral model for pricing or a Real-World version for Economic Capital modelling, using these tools can help produce a much more robust analysis. Unfortunately, these models and their underpinnings are also very complicated, which can lead to confusion. Come watch the presenters try to demystify some of this. In particular, they will address the following questions: • What is the difference between Real-World and Risk Neutral scenarios? • When should I use one or the other? • How are these models calibrated? • What are some of the misconceptions about these models? At the conclusion of the session, attendees will be able to: • Explain the difference between Real-World and a Risk Neutral scenarios • Understand the appropriate usage of both • Identify some of the calibration questions that go into developing an appropriate set of scenarios • Avoid some of the common misconceptions about these scenarios

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Boston Meeting presents a political version of risk assessment and risk analysis. The presenter looks at the politics and the political economy in place, some of the trends, parallels and potential problems. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 4a.

Description: The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been discussed widely and in depth, with lockdown measures and restrictions on travel and trading having a severe impact on the global economy. It is therefore essential the insurance industry investigates these changes in the economy in terms of their impact on morbidity and mortality. In this article, we highlight some of the key findings on this topic.

Description: This article is the second installment in a three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I was published in the November 2019 issue. Part II addresses critical considerations in selecting, building, using, and validating ESGs. The article discusses key criteria in understanding ESGs including: - Risk factors - Scenario type - Process and parameterization - Calibration - Number of scenarios - Timing considerations

Description: This paper uses economic principles to analyze alternative recognition schemes for end-of-period retirement plan liabilities the candidates, using U.S. nomenclature, are the vested benefit obligation VBO, the accumulated benefit obligation ABO and the projected benefit obligation PBO.

Description: Investment opportunities are driven by events in the economy and how participants in the financial markets react to those events. This keynote address will highlight current economic themes and their impact on investment opportunities.

Description: Many countries have suffered the ups and downs of the COVID-19pandemic, and Mexico is no exception. Even worse, in contrast withEuropean countries that saw numbers dip during the summer of2020, Mexico did not. A first peak was reached at the end of July2020, then a slight decrease in the following two months. SinceOctober, Mexico has experienced the worst increasing trend of thewhole epidemic. In this article, Arturo Erdely, a professor of actuarialscience, explains this increase.