Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: An approach to quantify medical intervention savings when medical claims data is not available by leveraging overlapping measurement techniques.

Description: Traditional risk scoring models include only fixed (non-random) demographic and condition-based variables. By including the provider effect as part of the risk scoring model as a random effect, we can get better estimates of provider performance (incorporating practice patterns conditional on patient morbidity profile). This approach can be generalized to study other factors that are now masked in error variance (i.e. area, Social Determinants) but if modeled could give us better estimates of risk

Description: The purpose of this paper is to introduce a practical method for interpolation and smoothing and give a number of numerical examples using the method. The method is a variation of the Whittaker-Henderson method. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: This paper presents a few formulaic examples displaying the advantages of geometric methods over arithmetic methods and provides some theorems proving the increased accuracy geometric methods can provide for interpolation or extrapolation

Description: The two-parameter Pareto distribution is a commonly used model in reliability and risk modeling. Minimum variance unbiased estimates of the parameters of Pareto distribution are not known. In this paper, we propose and investigate a method of estimation of the parameters of the Pareto distribution. This method is based on minimization of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov distance between the empirical cumulative distribution function [cdf] and the cdf of the Pareto distribution.

Description: We ask whether we can find support for the previously reported upper limit of the force of mortality of 0.7, i.e. about the probability of tossing a fair coin.

Description: This paper by John Mereu describes a method for mathematically computing the expected loss under a group life contract in excess of a stated limit. The paper also shows how to compute the variance and standard deviation of the stop-loss claim and suggests how the method can be extended to group insurance benefits where the claim amount per certificate is not fixed. Paper is followed by discussions from several people

Description: The purpose of this paper is to illustrate the use of a new approximation to determine contingency reserves against adverse mortality experience for a portfolio of life annuity contracts.