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Introduction to Forecasting Methods for Actuaries
actuarial work. RELEVANT FORECASTING METHODS Table 1 on page 7 and 8 provides an overview of forecast- ... the above. The table describes each method and its preferable applica- tion. The table also includes an ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Sep 2009
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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International compendium
PART III HEALTH BEHAVIORS Individual care recipient role Individual healthcare role Group healthcare ... roles in Chapter three, a person acting in the “individual person” role. Use the agent role index. For ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jun 2013
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Topics: Health & Disability>Health care
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Answers to Exercises - for the report Complexity Science
soccer players team relationships rules of game, individual movement rules the soccer field and the ball ... controlled experiments, all to understand the agents’ individual behavior rules. Then the actuary would build ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jun 2010
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics>Behavioral economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods
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Update - Futurism 101
at the appropriate level and deal with it on the table rather than sweep it under the rug and hope that ... heuristic forecasting. Although the tool runs on an individual personal computer, it is better as a group tool ...- Authors: E Tom Hughes, Alan Mills, Peter C Bishop
- Date: Oct 1996
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Process and technique refinement
- Publication Name: Record of the Society of Actuaries
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Best Methods and Practices in Judgmental Forecasting
gov/shuttle/ missions/51-l/docs/rogers-commission/table-of- contents.html). 7 Lawrence, Goodwin, O’Connor ... generally less accurate than structured, and the individual method is less accurate than group methods ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jul 2010
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Overview of forecasting methods
Table 1: Overview Of fOrecasTing meThOds Forecasting method Description/preferred application Current ... Generally not used Widely used [17, 18] [19] Table 1: Overview Of fOrecasTing meThOds continued Forecasting ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Sep 2009
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Overview of forecasting methods
Table 1: Overview Of fOrecasTing meThOds Forecasting method Description/preferred application Current ... Generally not used Widely used [17, 18] [19] Table 1: Overview Of fOrecasTing meThOds continued Forecasting ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Sep 2009
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Simulating Health Behavior - A Guide to Solving Complex Health System Problems with Agent-Based Simulation Modeling
feel inadequate to model health care at the individual behavioral level. What surprises me, though ... Rather than work hard to understand and model how individual health behaviors produce systemic outcomes, ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Jun 2013
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Topics: Health & Disability>Health care
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Should Actuaries Get Another Job?
decision-making domain into four quadrants, as shown in Table 1.4 Taleb divides the decision-making domain according ... MAThEMATIcS.—nassim Taleb conTInuEd on PAGE 24 Table 1: Four quadrants of the decision-making domain ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Sep 2009
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Actuarial Profession; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Should Actuaries Get Another Job? Nassim Taleb’s work and it’s significance for actuaries
domain into four quadrants, as shown in Table 1.[4] Table 1: Four quadrants of the decision-making ... or even the trajectories of billiard balls on a table (see sidebar on next page). Even less can Cognitive ...- Authors: Alan Mills
- Date: Mar 2010
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Publication Name: Risk Management
- Topics: Actuarial Profession; Enterprise Risk Management; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting