Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 107PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held May 19-21 in Anaheim, CA. Research results from the National Long-Term Care Survey and other surveys of the general elderly population indicate that age-specific morbidity [functional disability] prevalence rates have dropped significantly since 1982. The panelists quantify the nature of the temporal trends in disease morbidity and functional disability, noting that what is really new in this session is looking at the joint impact of changes in disability and mortality. They illustrate the potential impact of these temporal trends on long-term care insurance LTCI pricing and valuation, and provide some guidance as to how this material can be used by LTCI actuaries. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1.

Description: Tables used for the Underlying and Multiple Cause Mortality at Advanced Ages: United States 1980-1998 paper.

Description: Table constructed from lifetime long-term care cost studies conducted by P.J. Eric Stallard, ASA, FCA, MAAA, Center for Demographic Studies, Duke University.

Description: This paper generalizes the life table to include the effects of observed and unobserved tine-varying health-related covariates using a longitudinal form of the Grade of Membership model to specify and estimate a multivariate model of the trajectories of disability and mortality among elderly respondents to the NLTCS of 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: This report contains estimates of incidence and continuance rates from the general population using data available from the National Long–Term Care Surveys. This report was done by a subcommittee of the Society's Long–Term Care Experience Committee and reflects work done primarily at the Duke University Center for Demographic Studies. This is a ZIP file containing main report, all appendices, tables, and figures from the study and model.

Description: The new incidence and continuance tables from the National Long-Term Care Survey based on activities-of-daily-living threshold and cognitive impairment will be presented. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 3b.

Description: Paper estimates the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using sex-specific measures of long-term care LTC service use, intensity and costs.

Description: This report is to estimate the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using unisex and sex-specific measures of long-term care service use, intensity and costs. It discusses disability prevalence, incidence, duration, and long-term care intensity and cost.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. This paper evaluates age and sex specific patterns of change in underlying and multiple cause of death reports for the period 1980-1998 for 14 leading causes of death at ages 65 and older. Changes in four types of mortality measures will be analyzed: 1 underlying cause death rates 2 multiple cause death rates 3 associated cause death rates and 4 death rates based on the joint occurrences of multiple cause conditions. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of existing models for analyzing and forecasting future mortality patterns in the U.S.

Description: This discussion on long-term care [LTC] highlights secondary drivers in LTC experience in both insured and general populations. Practical applications of this new information for pricing, reserving and marketing is discussed. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 28, No. 2, Session 42pd.