Description: This paper describes methods for determining bounds on the price of derivative instruments, such as option on insurance futures, given only market information. From Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium, M-FI97-1.

Description: Actuaries measure, model, and manage risks. Risk associated with the investment function is a major uncertainty faced by many insurance companies. Actuaries should have knowledge of the asset side of the balance sheet of an insurance company and how it relates to the liability side. From Securitization of Insurance Risk: The 1995 Bowles Symposium, M-FI97-1.

Description: The external actuary must balance the goals of the company with a realistic assessment of the chances of achieving them, uncovering hidden value while scaling back on aggressive targets to achieve a balanced, defensible end product with buy-in from the seller's team. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1.

Description: Complete monograph: Actuarial Consideration in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1. This paper presents a broad overview of the actuarial considerations of insurance company transactions in developing countries, identifying both theoretical and practical issues that need to be addressed when trying to assess the potential value of a multi-national insurance transaction.

Description: Actuarial appraisals are performed using discounted cash-flow models. Using local market insurance accounting standards, an appraisal model typically assumes annual after-tax distributable earnings that are repatriated to the investor. The various lines of business are modeled and validated individually and presented in separate sections of the appraisal report before being aggregated into a total company model. From Actuarial Considerations in Insurance Mergers and Acquisitions, M-FI03-1.

Description: A central problem for regulators and risk managers concerns the risk assessment of an aggregate portfolio defined as the sum of d individual dependent risks Xi. This problem is mainly a numerical issue once the joint distribution of (X1,X2, . . . ,Xd) is fully specified. Unfortunately, while the marginal distributions of the risks Xi are often known, their interaction (dependence) is usually either unknown or only partially known, implying that any computed risk measure of the portfolio is subject to model uncertainty. Previous academic research has focused on the maximum and minimum possible values of a given risk measure of the portfolio, in the case in which only the marginal distributions are known. This approach leads to wide bounds, as all information on the dependence is ignored. In this paper, we integrate in a natural way available information on the multivariate dependence and provide easy-to-compute bounds for the risk measure at hand. We observe that incorporating the information of a well-fitted multivariate model may, or may not, lead to much tighter bounds, a feature that also depends on the risk measure used. We illustrate this point by showing that the Value-at-Risk at a very high confidence level (as used in Basel II) is typically prone to very high model risk, even if one knows the multivariate distribution almost completely. Our results make it possible to determine which risk measures can benefit from adding dependence information (i.e., leading to narrower bounds when used to assess portfolio risk), and, hence, to identify those models for which it would be meaningful to develop accurate multivariate models.

Description: This paper examines different objectives in managing credit concentration risk. The suitability of different measures and presentation techniques is discussed and illustrated in the context of a case study.

Description: This paper gives two explicit formulae that estimate the yield of a portfolio of fixed income securities that are not interest-sensitive. The yield is explicitly estimated in terms of the discounting interest rates of the securities that comprise the portfolio. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper evaluates the current practice of operational risk management in the insurance sector. Operational risk is nothing new in insurance, but, because of regulatory requirements, companies have initiated computation of risk capital for their operational losses. The current effort to manage operational risk is not a naturally evolving phenomenon, and operational risk, in the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision’s Basel II definition, is unlikely to be a significant cause of insurers’ failure. In addition, the current Basel II definition of operational risk is not suitable for the insurance sector. Consequently, the invention of models and tools based on the definition is incomplete and illusionary. My findings are based on the analysis of dozens of interviews with insurance industry professionals. I demonstrate the way operational risk is quantified in practice, show that the result obtained from this computation is of littl e use in managerial decision making and propose a set of policy recommendations illustrating the characteristics of operational risk in insurance. This study can be used as a platform for launching dialogues to initiate fresh thinking about operational risk in insurance beyond the current artificial and narrow boundaries.

Description: 2011 SOA ERM Symposium, Chicago. This paper addresses the contradiction between the financial theory of hedging and management practice. It also examines how consistent hedging policy is incompatible with management’s competencies and role in the company, requiring management to form strong future price expectations. Finally, this paper describes a process that management actually follows when making decisions about hedging and stress the role of the expectations discrepancy in this process.