Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: We apply grouped functional time series forecasting methods to produce point forecasts of mortality rates at older ages and price fixed-term annuities.

Description: Interest rate changes and volatile equity returns have contributed to significant funding and expense volatility for defined benefit plans in recent years. This paper will describe the design of an option contract with payouts that are tied to the combined impact of interest rates and investment returns on the funding level of a defined benefit pension plan. Current derivatives used by plan sponsors can limit exposure to one of these risks; however, a derivative that combines these risks may provide more targeted protection to a plan sponsor at lower cost. This paper discusses several considerations in designing such a derivative. It will also briefly discuss pricing of the option. Finally, the difference in potential outcomes between plan funding with and without option ownership will be demonstrated. As an outcome of the design work, a new way to visualize pension risk that may be useful in sponsor accounting disclosures will be shown.

Description: This paper reviews the life cycle of a typical pension plan, examines the issues relating to its funding, and proposes a new funding approach that tries to balance the various concerns. From The Future of Pension Plan Funding and Disclosure Monograph, M-RS05-1.

Description: This paper, originally published in 1969 in Transactions of Society of Actuaries Vol. 21, presents an analysis of the basic actuarial theory for life insurance policies with fixed premiums and variable benefits reflecting the investment performance of a separate account, where in its basic form, the policyholder bears the entire investment risk. The paper discusses various regulatory and other changes that would be needed or desirable, as well as variation in design such as minimum guarantees. Significant discussion is included, with over twenty individuals contributing in addition to the authors. The introduction to the Monograph notes that while not the first paper on this topic, it “clearly established the framework for subsequent developments of variable products.”

Description: This paper discusses retirement planning information and the signals it provides. It focuses on the issue of communicating lump sum versus income benefits. It discusses challenges in communicating income benefits and provides some alternatives.

Description: This paper will focus on default distributions and why they are important.

Description: The costly, time-consuming and complicated process of enterprise risk management (ERM) can be improved in many companies and made less tedious for managers by using reasonable data and templates obtained from peer group entities. The models used to calculate economic capital (EC) often underestimate its value because they do not consider decision-maker perception about risk. We assume here that managers, as the decision-makers, have appropriate business understanding and they can provide substantial information about risk characteristics regarding all business processes. Therefore we are focused, in this paper, on collecting data from managers across the different businesses to derive the appropriate knowledge about risky events, the importance of particular types of risk, the relationship between the risk outcomes and the level of risk control in a particular industry. We conclude that the collected data has a high potential for use as a benc hmarking reference and analysis for improving ERM models for individual businesses.

Description: This paper uses a simple example to examine the relationship between the pricing objective of ROI and the corporate profit measure of ROE. Additionally, this paper examines the effect on ROI and ROE of growth in the amount of new business. From Product Development Section Monograph, M-AS99-3.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.