Description: The author discusses the review of a recent 2001 Wall Street Journal’s semiannual survey of economists’ forecasts, starting by asking if there is a simple way to summarize the results and to extract a consensus forecast, and from this extraction, determine when an individual forecast is significantly different from that of the consensus.This article is reprinted with permission. It last ran in the Jan. 10, 2001 issue of The La Jolla Economics newsletter.

Description: Surveys the outlook for interest rates among Inv Symposium participants, as of Feb 29 2016.

Description: Read the February 2017 issue of Risks and Rewards published by the Investment Section.

Description: This articles explores the notion of whether the old rules and paradigms of investment strategy and caution may no longer be applicable in today’s financial environment, because things were “different this time.”

Description: This article discusses capital market cycles, specifically considering whether or not 2008 was a good time to buy. It concludes that “stocks have likely only recently entered the buying opportunity range on an aggregate basis. However, from a psychological and risk management perspective, we should strongly consider that stock prices will revert beyond the mean for many years, perhaps even decades, before they get better.”

Description: This article explores the market volatility of 2008, and addresses the following question: “was the market behaving inefficiently as appeared to be the case in 2008, or was there something truly rational going on, which for most people was hard to see?”

Description: “Global tactical asset allocation GTAA is an invest¬ment approach that seeks to exploit short-term mar¬ket inefficiencies to generate uncorrelated absolute returns by taking positions in various asset classes, regions, styles and currencies. Due to its low correlation with tradi¬tional asset classes, GTAA can diversify an existing portfolio without making material changes to the portfolio’s overall risk characteristics.”

Description: This article discusses Variable Annuity products with significant guaranteed minimum benefits, and hedging strategies used by insurers due to the mark to market accounting requirements for these liabilities under GAAP. It focuses in particular on delta-hedging and the implications of the 2008 market volatility.

Description: Explains the more granular breakout of bond RBC factors proposed to the NAIC. Evaluates alternative asset allocation choices for insurers under the new rules.

Description: Invites readers to submit topics on the theme of "This Time It's Different. Members will then be invited to submit essays for and against.