Description: Panelists discuss several factors impacting the pricing and design of health products. Topics include the recession, managed care, defined-contribution plans, employer perspective and provider pricing power. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 2, Session 81

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This study note introduces the methodology and tools of applied futurism. Actuaries must explore new methodologies and tools for dealing with open unstable systems. The discipline of futurism has developed and tested a methodology and tools to apply to these systems. This note intends to provide sufficient knowledge, skills, and attitudes about applied futurism, so the tools and perspectives can be used daily by an actuary. In the note, we will orient you to the general field of futurism by reviewing its history and comparing it to similar disciplines such as strategic planning, economic planning, and actuarial science. We will also bring you up-to-date on the current state of knowledge about how change happens in our world of complicated open systems, and why we need the tools of applied futurism. Finally, we will describe the methodology and tools of applied futurism. If you wish to learn more about applied futurism,provides a basic bibliography of important works in this area.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: In this article, the author examines Nassim Taleb’s work and writings and discusses its relevance to the future of the actuarial profession.

Description: An introduction to the field of Complexity Science. The report includes an overview of the field’s key results, detailed instructions for building Complexity Science models, examples of working models, review of practical models applicable to the work of actuaries, a literature review, and a discussion on how actuaries can apply Complexity Science in their work.

Description: This paper explores how health care complexity challenges us to expand our repertoire of actuarial methods—and even recast our trend driver paradigm—in order to do our jobs better and maintain our credibility.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.