Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents a model for examining the effect of various relationships between mortality rates and lapse rates on the mortality experience of a cohort of insured lives. It takes an individual approach rather than the aggregate approach used in traditional methods of analyzing selective lapsation. The model assumes that insured lives are healthy at policy issue, but may later move to an impaired state from which the lapse rate is zero. Associated with each insured is an unobservable 'risk level' random variable, which reflects the heterogeneity of the insured group. Individual mortality and lapse rates are functions of the risk level. A numerical illustration provides some interesting results obtained using this model.

Description: This paper presents some preliminary results of an analysis of data from a regional municipality in Ontario to assess long term care risks. The data includes information on the optimal level of care at one or more points in time for each individual under study modelled using a Markov process.

Description: This paper develops a general approach to actuarial calculations in applications that can be modeled as multi-state processes. Such situations arise when benefits are payable upon a change in the status of the insured or while the insured maintains a given status. From the Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1994, Vol. 46.

Description: This paper presents an approach to analyzing continuing care retirement community CCRC data and demonstrates the methodology by using data from a CCRC. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities - The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: This paper presents an approach to analyzing continuing care retirement community [CCRC] data, and demonstrates the methods using data from a large CCRC. It is assumed that residents make transitions among a number of states that represent the levels of care required by residents. There is randomness associated with both the transition times and the states entered at these times. The model is conveniently characterized in terms of transition intensity functions, which represent the instantaneous rates of transition between pairs of states.

Description: This paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of underwriting cycles on an insurer’s surplus. The model allows the insurer to vary its security loading in response to the cycles, with a strategy parameter that indicates the extent to which the insurer follows the loading which prevails in the market. The insurer’s claim rate is also allowed to vary to reflect exposure changes that result from the insurer’s strategy. The paper analyzes ruin probabilities using both simulation and a Lundberg-type upper bound which is developed in the paper. It finds that the latter is suitable and convenient for comparing ruin probabilities under the different insurer strategies.

Description: In this paper, the authors show how probabilities and actuarial values may be calculated using a time-homogeneous Markov model. Piecewise constant transition intensities are suggested as a way to extend the approach to the inhomogeneous case. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1.

Description: Panelists at this session of the SOA 1998 Annual Meeting discuss the results of two SOA research projects. One study looks at mortality rates as a function of lapse rates. The other study develops a model for relating mortality and lapse rates.