Description: Accurate forecasts of future health care expenditures for cohorts of elderly individuals can be especially difficult. Current techniques use average per capita costs, based on local experience, adjusted for the cohort's age, sex, institutionalization, and welfare status distribution. This paper presents a method to adjust such per capita cost estimates to reflect more accurately the likely health status of a particular cohort. The adjustment uses the cause-of-mortality profile in the local population, which is a readily available tabulation known to be highly correlated with a major proportion of total medical care expenditures for people beyond age 65. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1984, Vol. 36.

Description: An economics professor and a health care consumer advocate weigh in on the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, including implementation issues, directions for the future and what role actuaries shoudl take.

Description: A proposal to address provider payment issues by gradually moving to accountable care organizations. Capitations would be risk-adjusted, non-capitated costs would be covered by hospitalization fund and stoploss, incentives for quality & effective preventive care would be tied to the amount remaining in the fund, and government involvement would be through incentives rather than mandate.

Description: A report on the proceedings of the June 2010 SOA health meeting. Leading topics included health care reform, opportunities to expand actuaries' roles, the global financial crisis, and collaboration with other organizations.

Description: A proposal to reform the health care provider payment system through: a national fee schedule, shifting more reimbursements to primary care providers, better integration of hospital & physician fees, evidence based care, pay for performance, and a better provider risk sharing mechanism.

Description: This actuarial memorandum represents the first, formal actuarial opinion regarding the reasonableness of the premium estimates the Clinton Administration presented with its proposed Health Security Act. The memorandum presents the assumptions and methods used to develop an average 1994 premium estimate for the standard benefit package.

Description: The Health Section Council Chairperson looks back at a historic year for the health care industry, and what it means for health actuaries.

Description: Article from the Pension Section News, June 2000, on the simple logic of health care inflation. This article is reprinted with permission and ran in the April 2000 issue of Health Section News.

Description: Why health care inflation exceeds the Consumer Price Index CPI due to tax implications. Issue No. 37.

Description: Article about the future roles in health insurance.