Description: This article discusses the concept of Conservation of Mortality ("Conservation"). Conservation is the modeling principle that ensures consistency between assumptions of the total mortality of a population and mortality among population subsets. This article discusses the use cases for Conservation and the many ways that one could implement it in a model or an experience study. This article also discusses the potential issues that arise when using Conservation, and how one might solve or alleviate these issues.

Description: This report provides estimated savings for several of the options that are available to plan sponsors after implementation of the Medicare prescription drug program.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: This paper describes an approach to the problem of long range planning that a group insurance writing company might use in attempting to determine the most desirable rate of growth. These techniques may also be used for testing premium and dividend scales. Discussions of this paper are included.

Description: The article provides a high-level, non-technical, introduction to artificial neural networks (ANNs) and deep learning with an application to risk management. The method relies on typical ANN components such as nodes, activation functions, and optimization through gradient descent.

Description: The April 2016 Issue of The Modeling Platform

Description: This panel discussion considers some of the approaches, techniques and problems in the development of corporate models and assumptions. The pros and cons of buying versus developing models was discussed and the use of deterministic versus stochastic models was addressed as well.

Description: The comments of DxCG about their participation in the SOA study A Comparative Analysis of Claims-Based Tools for Health Risk Assessment.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that deals with a recent modification of the Monte Carlo method known as quasi random Monte Carlo. Under this approach, one uses specially selected deterministic sequences rather than random sequences as in Monte Carlo. These special sequences are known as low discrepancy sequences and have the property that they tend to be evenly dispersed throughout the unit cube. For many applications in finance, the use of low discrepancy sequences seems to provide more accurate answer than random sequences.

Description: This paper presents a model for analyzing the impact of underwriting cycles on an insurer’s surplus. The model allows the insurer to vary its security loading in response to the cycles, with a strategy parameter that indicates the extent to which the insurer follows the loading which prevails in the market. The insurer’s claim rate is also allowed to vary to reflect exposure changes that result from the insurer’s strategy. The paper analyzes ruin probabilities using both simulation and a Lundberg-type upper bound which is developed in the paper. It finds that the latter is suitable and convenient for comparing ruin probabilities under the different insurer strategies.