Description: This study note introduces the methodology and tools of applied futurism. Actuaries must explore new methodologies and tools for dealing with open unstable systems. The discipline of futurism has developed and tested a methodology and tools to apply to these systems. This note intends to provide sufficient knowledge, skills, and attitudes about applied futurism, so the tools and perspectives can be used daily by an actuary. In the note, we will orient you to the general field of futurism by reviewing its history and comparing it to similar disciplines such as strategic planning, economic planning, and actuarial science. We will also bring you up-to-date on the current state of knowledge about how change happens in our world of complicated open systems, and why we need the tools of applied futurism. Finally, we will describe the methodology and tools of applied futurism. If you wish to learn more about applied futurism,provides a basic bibliography of important works in this area.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. An update on Futurism Section activities followed by an introduction to common techniques of futurism. Examples are given how actuaries can use these techniques in their day-to-day work.