Description: Scenario generators used in financial models to quantify risk are sometimes described as being as either “real-world” or “risk-neutral”. The difference is in the treatment of the market price of risk. This report explores the relationship between real-world and risk-neutral scenarios and when it is appropriate to use each type.

Description: Economic Scenario Generator - Investment Section Web Series Session #1 - Fundamentals & Hot Topics This session will cover the following points: 1. Introduction: ESG Basics, What is Risk Neutral and Real World? 2. Interest Rate Modeling 3. Equity and Private Equity Modeling 4. Example use cases facing investment professionals and actuaries today

Description: This article is an update, as of March 2019, on Financial Reporting Section sponsored projects in process and those recently completed.

Description: Since solvency assessment depends on a financial reporting framework, one needs risk metrics for use in financial reporting. The essay argues that conceptually, the cost of capital is the appropriate metric for reserves, while a probability level is the appropriate metric for capital. Then the essay advocates stress testing on specific scenarios as a better practical approach to ORSA.

Description: Economic Scenario Generator - Investment Section Web Series Session #2 - Real World This session will cover the following points: 1. NAIC ESG 2. Strategic Asset Allocation and Optimization Techniques 3. Covid-19 Postmortem: Modeling and calibration changes because of recent events

Description: Since insurance contract liabilities are uncertain in amount, an estimate is required. And under most accounting frameworks, the estimate of an uncertain amount should contain some sort of margin for uncertainty. This paper provides a mathematical connection between that margin and the market price of risk as measured by the cost of capital. The connection makes use of the theory of utility and an exponential utility curve.

Description: The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute released an updated report summarizing current issues regarding actuarial technology. In March 2022, for a second time, the SOA Research Institute gathered a panel of insurance industry experts for an update on current actuarial technology topics to help identify directions for future research efforts. This report summarizes their discussions on the Actuarial operating model, technology risk and open-source software.

Description: Discussion of the new scenario generator selected by the NAIC and its behavior at low interest rates.

Description: Scenario generators used in financial models to quantify risk are sometimes described as being as either “real-world” or “risk-neutral”. The difference is in the treatment of the market price of risk. This report explores the relationship between real-world and risk-neutral scenarios and when it is appropriate to use each type.

Description: This research report analyzes the risk associated with the use of models through the potential for model error.