Description: From a simple mathematical model of the underlying economics, I first predicted this crisis in July of 2004. An economic dynamic relating very low interest rates to the structure of the demand curve in the housing market made this outcome foreseeable, indeed inevitable. The current crisis had a mathematical cause. Essay on the collapse of the housing bubble.

Description: The Joint Risk Management Section conducted its fourth survey of emerging risks in fall 2010 in light of the BP oil spill which brought the impact of various risk combinations to the fore.

Description: This is the SOA website page displaying the table of contents for Risk Management: The Current Financial Crisis, Lessons Learned and Future Implications series of essays.

Description: This article talks about partnering with other risk professionals and the importance of research into the nature of risk and the responses to risk events.

Description: A collection of essays written on the current financial crisis, lessons learned and future implications.

Description: The crisis has spread due to a systematic failure of the regulatory system. Over the last 20 years, regulations that fostered market stability were eliminated and new financial instruments were allowed to propagate without any real oversight. Instead of bailing out weak financial firms, we should be liquidating them. All doubtful assets need to be written-downs. We need accurate and transparent accounting. Government can help in this effort by cleaning up our accounting system. But it needs to stop being an investor propping up those that should be in the morgue. It needs to conservatively regulate all financial instruments. It should foster liquidity and stoke demand.

Description: This article describes risk modeling and how to build a risk intelligence system.

Description: This article summarizes an emerging risk research project completed by the Joint Risk Management Section. The major categories of risks in the survey were 1. Economic, 2. Environmental, 3. Geopolitical, 4. societal and 5. Technological.

Description: This article discusses how the industry as a whole is revisiting its risk management strategies in the wake of the financial crisis.

Description: Arguably, many of the fundamental contributing factors to the 2008 mortgage crisis involved misdirected incentives and misinformation available to key participants in the housing finance process. The incentives discussed here include those of the mortgage holders, mortgage intermediaries, mortgage providers, securitizers, raters and CEOs and other highly paid staff of those involved. Unless similar incentives are recognized, future public policy decisions will again fail to avoid this system-wide risk. Since I am most familiar with the U.S. situation, my comments will be limited accordingly.