Description: Within this paper, we take an applied approach to examine the economics of ERM. We provide readers with a series of economically based warning signs that might signify significant changes in asset prices. These warning signs are based on the economic concepts of elasticity of demand, elasticity of supply and herd behavior. Our recommendations provide practical guidance to directors, executives and practitioners regarding ways in which they can mitigate risks in today’s volatile environment. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Discussion rebutting the Dec. 2004 issue of The Financial Reporter article titled, “On the Fair Value of Insurance Liabilities,” authored by Don Solow. That article expressed disagreement with the position of the International Accounting Standards Board and the Financial Accounting Standards Board to reflect the value of “own credit risk” in the fair valuation of insurance liabilities.

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society CAS and the Society of Actuaries SOA, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research.

Description: Exploration of sources of volatility in retiree health valuations, noting how volatility arises and might be mitigated, with discussion of valuation parameters more problematic for retiree health benefits than for pensions. Three significant influences on retiree health valuation volatility are covered-- changes in benefit level, fluctuations in cost level, and alterations in eligibility for, or duration of, benefit – and attention focused on the last two. Specific conclusions result in recommendations, which are supported by practical examples contrasting volatile measurement results with those likely from the recommended practices. Theoretical discussion includes health claim variation, health trend usage, financial economics, option pricing, discount rates, and deterministic vs. stochastic modeling.

Description: Diverse Risks 2016 Call for Essays

Description: In the context of insurance economics, the PH-transform is justified through some basic postulates on market premiums. In this paper the PH-transform is applied to the present value random variable in life insurance and annuities. It provides an alternative to the commonly used equivalence principle in life insurance and annuities premium calculation. This research project is sponsored by a joint AERF/CKER Grant of the Society of Actuaries.

Description: Discussion of significant anomalies in option pricing due to the independent identically distributed assumption of the Black Scholes formula.

Description: This is an in-depth look at the root causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and ways actuaries can eliminate the problems. From the Actuary Magazine, April/May 2010 – Volume 7 Issue 2.

Description: ongoing discussion of the proper interest rate to use in discounting liability cash flows to reflect credit risk of the insurer in a fair value accounting system

Description: Presented at November 1952 Annual Meeting. Discusses some societal issues affecting the insurance business: war hazard, inflation, and taxation. Also discusses efforts to explain the profession and the prior year's activities within the profession.