Description: This paper summarizes default experience on bonds from 1900 through 1987. Although the information is more extensive for publicly traded bonds, the paper includes some information on private placements, some of which is not otherwise available.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: To inform and educate stakeholders for health plans and insurers on novel ways to optimize reinsurance structures to meet capital related goals and boost RBC and liquidity ratios. In lieu of traditional market-based financial instruments involving equity and/or debt, a quota share transaction can be used with potentially far more attractive terms and achieving essentially the same result.

Description: This article focuses on one fundamental modeling assumption — the choice of a benchmark rate or risk-free rate. The author looks at this bond market assumption as a case study of how one needs to monitor fundamental market changes for their impact on assumptions.

Description: Discussion of the introduction of the Euro and its impact on European cooperation and its impact on the ability of the United States and its currency to dominate the world's political and financial system.

Description: In this paper, we illustrate how to value American-style options using the Least-Squares Monte Carlo LSM approach proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz 2001 and investigate whether there exists an optimal regression complexity in the LSM framework for options pricing. In particular, we use the smoothing spline in the regression step, which allows us to control the regression complexity on a continuous scale with just one tuning parameter. Numerical results on American put options indicate that we need to use more than a linear regression, but as the regression becomes more complex, the accuracy of the LSM method quickly deteriorates. From 39th Actuarial Research Conference.

Description: This is a continuation of an article published for the speculative future contest in 2023. It mentions how the collapse of China would cause a global recession in 2029 due to the current and predicted geopolitical climate in 2023.

Description: This article provides a retrospective on investment risk management while highlighting actuarial tools used by portfolio risk managers.

Description: This paper investigates the interaction between a credit portfolio and another risk type, which can be thought of as market risk. We analytically calculate their inter-risk correlation and show how inter-risk correlation bounds can be derived.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the new IAA strategic plan for dealing with global financial risk.