Description: Discussion of the economics of a possible H5N1 pandemic, and its impact on Life, Health, and Property and Casualty insurers, in terms of areas of risk, especially underwritng risk, operations risk, and market risk.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.