Description: This paper demonstrates that using a conditional probability approach to analyzing investment data yields investment forecast and stock option pricing models which more closely match actual market data, and it demonstrates the impact that conditional probabilities could have on CAPM beta and risk premia calculations. Reprinted from: Journal of Financial and Economic Practice, Vol. 6 No. 2 Spring 2006.

Description: This note develops the optimality of the put option as a hedging strategy. For an investor who owns a stock, he can buy a put option to hedge against the downside risk of the stock price. In this short note, we ask two questions with the hedge strategy of the put option. First, whether the investor is better off with the hedging strategy? Second, if the investor is better off with the hedging strategy, whether it is the optimal hedging plan? Our result shows that in a risk averse world an investor will maximize his utility with buying the put option as a hedge strategy.

Description: Securitization of mortality risks is an alternative risk management tool that may have some advantages over reinsurance. The purpose of this paper is to study mortality-based securities, such as swaps and mortality bonds, and to price the proposed mortality securities. We focus on group life annuity data, although the techniques could be applied to other lines of annuity or life insurance.

Description: Much of the push for ERM has come from regulators and rating agencies, but it is being applied in internal company decision-making as well. This paper reviews the progress made and the needs still outstanding in two key areas of application: optimal capital level for an insurer and risk-adjusted profitability of business units. The basic conclusion is that progress has been made in these areas, but more is needed. Building models is not emphasized—it will be assumed that a state-of-the art model is available. The emphasis is on using such models in decision-making.

Description: This paper examines the problem of hedging foreign exchange risk across multiple countries using currency options. The profit target requirement is formulated as a stochastic constraint in the context of a binomial lattice. Models are presented for European options. In a numerical example, five currency options are selected, allowing for long or short positions, depending on the target value.

Description: This paper suggests a possible flexible solution to the time and resource problems of running a large number of stochastic interest rate scenarios, by selecting a representative subset. Each interest rate scenario consists of 30 future spot yield curves, where a reasonable number of points are specified on each curve such as 12. The distribution of the scenarios is approximated by the subset and each scenario in the subset has equal weight. The method is independent of the interest rate generator used.

Description: This paper illustrates the application of stochastic control methods in managing the risk associated with an insurance business. We present the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman HJB equation and demonstrate its use in finding the optimal investment strategy based on some given criteria. Here we consider an insurance business with a fixed amount available for investment in a portfolio consisting of one non-risky asset and one risky asset. The object of the resulting control problem is to determine the investment strategy that minimizes infinite time ruin probability. The existence of a solution to the resulting HJB equation is shown. The relevant verification lemma is not presented in this paper and a numerical algorithm is given instead. Examples applied to exponential claims are also presented.

Description: This paper discusses both the theoretical and the application aspects of stress testing in managing enterprise risks. Effective stress testing maximizes the risk adjusted enterprise profit by controlling major risks financial, strategic, operational and hazard upon identifying risk metrics and modeling the correlations. A case study is included for demonstration purposes.

Description: Guaranteed Annuity Options GAOs are options available to holders of certain pension policies. This paper studies GAOs using two models for the interest rate the Vasicek and the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross models. An actuarial approach is used to value the GAOs and compared with the value of a replicating portfolio.

Description: This paper explores Indian futures and options market as a market for hedging by equity holders. The authors have tried to examine optimal hedge ratio and hedge efficiency, and to provide empirical evidence from India.