Description: The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic have impacted many actuaries’ work since the spring of 2020. This article addresses three considerations actuaries should account for when using risk evaluation models which are focused on projecting remote, highly unlikely losses: model effectiveness, asset risk, and insurance (mortality and mortality) risk.

Description: The comments of DxCG about their participation in the SOA study A Comparative Analysis of Claims-Based Tools for Health Risk Assessment.

Description: Article provides a market scan of recent state proposals for Medicaid work requirements as well as measures the impact to enrollment in different states.

Description: A summary of the activities of the Forecasting & Futurism Section, including research initiatives, participation in Delphi studies and sponsoring of seminars.

Description: Discussion of several short stories by featured author Steve Mathys. Mathys was the winner of the 10th Speculative Fiction Contest Forecasting and Futurism Section prize.

Description: A look at the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, and how it differs from both prior financial crises and pandemics. The COVID-19 pandemic gives actuaries an opportunity to assess different ways risk may interact, and thereby adjust the profession’s work for the future.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: A discussion of the process and results report “A Study of the Use of the Delphi Method, A Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for Judgments.”