Description: Presented at May 2002 Spring Meeting. Presenters discuss a method of mortality projection on various scenarios about terrorism that have been written by futurists given the events of Sept. 11. Attendees learn to use a futurism technique scenarios to address actuarial problems.

Description: On October 30, 2006, the UK government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change made startling claims about the present value today of climate change effects predicted to emerge primarily 150 years or more in the future. The ensuing debate included challenges to and defenses of the particular methodology used and parameter values selected to perform the discounting of future values. Noticing an overlooked faux pas in the Stern Review, this presentation uncovers the likely motivation for choosing the most mystifying of the parameters values, and provides a lesson on the underpinnings of the basic tool of actuarial science.

Description: This session will discuss how the business environment will change even more in the next ten years than it has in the last ten. From Session 56PD of the New Orleans Annual Meeting.

Description: Presented at June 2002 Spring Meeting. A noted expert with a degree from the graduate program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake discusses long-term forecasting and planning, the future of information technology and technology transfer, strategic planning and the development of future scenarios.

Description: Presented at June 1985 Spring Meeting. Futures research is a demonstrated scientific approach to understanding what the future environment will be. Presentation discusses what it is, where did it start, who uses it and why, does it work, who benefits, what are some simple futures research techniques, how to make it work, what are today's key trends for tomorrow's insurance industry, and how to start a simple futures research program.

Description: Presented at October 1986 Annual Meeting. This session discussion is about the World Future Society meeting held in July, 1986, covering such topics as business, emergency management, finance, new technologies, work, careers and more. The panelists will offer an actuary's perspective of this gathering of futurists from various backgrounds and perspectives.

Description: Presented at Annual Meeting October 1986. Discusses: Reasonableness of cost projections in the 1986 OASDI Trustees Report, Possible policy alternatives in response to the higher cost projected for years after 2020, How to reduce the variability in cost trends due to economic and demographic changes, Financing implications of differences and similarities in cost trends between Social Security pensions and private pensions, paper, 'Components of Trends in Social Security Costs' by Francisco R. Bayo, Milton P. Glanz and Charles L. Trowbridge.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the purposes, tools and methods available, scenario testing, updating, special issues and problems. This discussion anticipates the development of new Valuation Actuary reserve adequacy opinion requirements.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents a forecasting model of economic assumptions that are inputs to projections of the Social Security system. Social Security projections are made to help policymakers understand the financial stability of the system.

Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.