Description: A research report that examines modeling of cash flow associated within a pool of mortgages and specifically focusing on the effectiveness of infusing a limited amount of capital into the pool.

Description: Appendix E is round 2 on comments on application of judgmental methods from the Delphi study. See the SOA Website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the variables.

Description: The projection methods used by the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary are important. The resulting projections are cited regularly by policy-makers, academics and others interested in the long-term financial solvency of the OASDI system. However, a complete description of this projection methodology that is vital for serious policy discussions is not available to the general public. This summary was constructed in connection with the Social Security Advisory Board's 1999 Technical Panel on Methods and Assumptions. A goal of the Methods and Modeling working group of the Technical Panel was to 'work to ensure that the projection methods used by the Office of the Chief Actuary become more public.' From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2000, Vol. 1.

Description: Appendix G is the listing of participants from the Delphi Report. Please see the SOA website Research section for the full Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report and all of the appendices.

Description: Examination of how mean reserve factors can best be calculated in light of the new accounting reporting requirements for the earnings of stock life insurance companies. Also examines some methods of expense amortization, including the reserve factor method, and also attempt to show an informative comparison of how reported calendar-year earnings can be expected to emerge with statutory mean reserve factors, natural mean reserve factors, and assorted expense amortization methods. Followed by several submitted discussion papers

Description: The Study was designed to elicit reasons behind the participants’ judgments about the future course of the four variables. In the first round participants were asked to provide judgments about the value of the four variables in 2024 and the reasons behind their judgments. The four variables were 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa yield. In addition, they were asked to list future developments that could cause historical trends in the variables to change. Finally they were asked to express their views on how the judgmental process employed in this study might influence the use and interpretation of traditional actuarial e.g., stochastic, deterministic estimation processes or to aid in planning. The data were collated between rounds and in the second Round, the responses of the group were provided to the participants.

Description: This paper introduces the modern concepts and definitions of the statistical subject of life testing, and ties them in with corresponding concepts of actuarial science. This paper additionally presents a justification of some common laws of mortality. Discussions of the paper are included.

Description: Appendix B is round 2 questionnaire on the study of selected economic variables using the Delphi method from the Delphi Report. See the SOA website Research for the complete report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report which includes all the appendices.

Description: Appendix D is round 2 - reasons for projections from the Delphi study. See SOA website Research section for the full report of the Delphi Study of Economic Variables Report along with all the appendices.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.