Description: This paper endeavors to obtain the explicit formulas of the probability of ruin in a Markov-modulated model where claim intensities, claim sizes and premiums vary according to a Markovian environment.

Description: This paper shows the application of a threshold strategy on the surplus level of an insurance risk model results in a process that can be analyzed as a doubly infinite Markov chain with finite blocks. The resulting procedures are then used to calculate the probability distributions for time of ruin, the surplus immediately prior to ruin, and the deficit at ruin. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2008, Vol.1.

Description: A study of disability experience examines cost burden and degree of disability, and how these measures vary across different subpopulations. This article summarizes a presentation given at the Society of Actuaries’ Living to 100: Survival to Advanced Ages International Symposium held on Jan. 7–9, 2008 in Orlando, Florida. An abstract of the author's paper was presented in the September 2008 issue of Long-Term Care News.

Description: This paper describes risk-factor-dependent multiple decrements and actuarial cost functions as a general compartment model, a discrete time and discrete state stochastic model of morbidity and mortality processes. For large numbers of risk factors, the model is extended to its natural continuous time and state form. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: Demography is a very exciting subject. With a simple mathematical model, students can project a country's population forward 25, 59, 75 even 100 years. This paper will focus on six ideas from demography. They all can be useful to an actuary, yet none of them would be considered at any length if the actuary didn’t study demography.

Description: Appendix to the Critical Review of Stochastic Simulation Literature and Applications for Health Actuaries. The Development of a Simulation Model of Primary Prevention Strategies for Coronary Heart Disease

Description: This paper builds a new risk model for a firm which is sensitive to its credit quality. A modified Jarrow, Lando and Turnball model [Markov Chain model] is used to model the credit rating. Recursive equations for finite time ruin probability and distribution of ruin time are derived. Coupled Volterra type integral equation systems for ultimate ruin probability, severity of ruin and joint distribution of surplus before and after ruin are also obtained. Some numerical results are included.

Description: This report contains estimates of incidence and continuance rates from the general population using data available from the National Long–Term Care Surveys. This report was done by a subcommittee of the Society's Long–Term Care Experience Committee and reflects work done primarily at the Duke University Center for Demographic Studies. This is a ZIP file containing main report, all appendices, tables, and figures from the study and model.

Description: This paper considers the Bayesian analysis of the generalized Poisson distribution GPD and the generalized Poisson regression GPR model. Markov chain Monte Carlo MCMC methods and random variety generation strategies such as adaptive rejection sampling ARS for log-concave densities and adaptive rejection Metropolis sampling ARMS are discussed and then utilized in order to advance the Bayesian analysis of these generalized Poisson models.