Description: The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic have impacted many actuaries’ work since the spring of 2020. This article addresses three considerations actuaries should account for when using risk evaluation models which are focused on projecting remote, highly unlikely losses: model effectiveness, asset risk, and insurance (mortality and mortality) risk.

Description: This paper uses a mortality surge model to estimate the total financial impact on the U.S. insurance industry of a flu pandemic. It does not attempt to determine the probability of such a pandemic.

Description: Risk adjustment in government regulated health plans has been around for over two decades. Yet the strategies for promoting risk score accuracy haven't varied much during that time. Most health plans, physician groups, and vendors promote chart reviews and/or in-home assessments as the primary vehicle for collecting data not perceived to be present in the routine claims submission and adjudication stream. We know that most organizations trying to coalesce encounter data from multiple sources often fail to ensure that all relevant data is ultimately submitted to CMS or a state Medicaid agency. Crucial data, often with significant financial value, frequently gets lost in the data pipeline, somewhere between the provider's billing system and the health plan and/or its vendors. Because 837-formatted data is difficult to read, it complicates payers and vendor’s abilities to track encounter data so that every service delivered to patients is credited to the applicable risk adjustment formula. It is incumbent upon successful risk-adjusted entities to be able to track encounter data, identify processes and/or vendors which may be mangling or losing data, in order to ensure that risk scores are sufficiently accurate to be compliant with plan sponsor requirements and to ensure appropriate revenue to the health plan or provider group.

Description: An overview of guaranteed lifetime withdrawal benefits (GLWB) on registered index-linkedannuity (RILA) products and a stochastic analysis of market risks.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: The author delves into other important parts that should be in the scope of model validation besides the code.

Description: Although rate structures where low-cost cohorts subsidize high cost cohorts may be justified from a actuarial, marketing, or legal standpoint, the subsidization creates risks which must be understood and monitored. This article presents the concept of subsidization signature to measure and interpret the effects of rate subsidization, and to assess the sustainability of rating structures and the sensitivity of business mix assumptions.

Description: The author recommends the use of "minimally destructive scenarios" as part of an ORSA process, in order to deal with cognitive bias that can occur in risk decision-making. Part of the essay collection "Risk Metrics for Decision Making and ORSA"

Description: This paper examines tandem levels of salary and interest rates and finds that the absolute level of each assumption as well as the differential are significant cost determinants for defined benefit pension plans. In forming best-estimate salary and interest rate assumptions, the actuary must reconcile the difference, if any, between the currently observed rates and the valuation assumptions. Common practice is to choose expected long-term rather than observed rates for valuation purposes. The error in this procedure is analyzed and found to be tolerable for strictly temporary discrepancies between observed rates and valuation assumptions. For situations where these discrepancies are expected to persist for some time, a need is shown for nonuniform, calendar-year assumptions or their equivalent in order to develop best-estimate assumptions. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This article describes some of the drawbacks to the assessment of longevity risk adopted by most practitioners within the UK together with an initiative that provides a platform for an alternative approach that is both (a) more forward-looking in nature and (b) can complement current practices.