Description: This 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference provides background on the work of the Society of Actuaries' Research Effectiveness Task Force [RETF] and presents the current status of that work in order to set the stage for breakout sessions during which Conference attendees have an opportunity to provide input to the SOA research effectiveness review.

Description: This paper presents an approach in which a defective renewal equation is solved in terms of a related compound geometric distribution. The advantage of this approach is discussed. The authors then apply this approach to a defective renewal equation which involves the time of ruin, the surplus before ruin and the total deficit at the time of ruin. They show how to compute the moments of the time of ruin as well as the joint distribution of the surplus before ruin and the deficit at the time of ruin. Two important cases in terms of claim size distributions are considered in detail. First, the authors consider exponential claim size distributions. They then consider a combination of two exponentials. The moments of the time of ruin are given in both cases.

Description: The results obtained during the last one-third of the research project and the project at whole are presented. The report only contains brief descriptions of the results which are placed in addendums and which are in reality copies of papers and a chapter of a book submitted for publication. Some theoretical and applied problems induced by the research are discussed.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that builds on previous work concerned with measuring equity, and considers the problem of using observed claim data or other information to arrive at premiums which maximize equity. When these optimal premiums are used, it is shown that gathering more information or refining the risk classification must always increase equity.

Description: This presentation from the 1998 Actuarial Research Conference is about about retirement plans in the late 1990's. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1999, Vol. 1.

Description: Abstract of a paper, In which we describe the method of obtaining k, by listing the underlying assumptions following Hogg and Klugman 1984. Then we calculate the variance of the estimator of k. We also present an alternative formula which will be suitable in other cases along with its variance.

Description: This is the agenda for the 33rd Annual Actuarial Research Conference held at Georgia State University, August 6-8, 1998.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: This article comments on the editorial policies of the Actuarial Research Clearing House publication. ARCH 2000 Vol 1

Description: What are the possible future implications to insurance companies of significant improvements in mortality? How can futurism techniques be used in research? The formation of the mortality improvement study group at the Principal Financial Group was the first step toward examining the issue of mortality improvement. In an interactive format, we will present what we learned about mortality and futurism techniques by participating in this group.