By Thomas P. Edwalds
This year, for the first time, the Education and Research Section is sponsoring sessions at the Society of Actuaries Life and Annuity Symposium, which will be held in Toronto on May 6-7. Registration is now open, and we encourage all E&R Section members to attend the following four sessions:
Predictive Modeling Applications
Organized and cosponsored by the Forecasting and Futurism Section, this session will review some predictive modeling tools and describe applications of these tools to specific situations as examples. The session will provide guidance for when predictive modeling tools can be effectively used and when they cannot, particularly with regard to modeling extreme events.
When Black Swans Aren’t
Catastrophic events like the 2008 market meltdown are often called "black swan" events based on the assumption that they are unpredictable. However, some analysts have successfully predicted such unprecedented, pivotal events. In this session, Guntram Werther, Ph.D. will present his recently published Society of Actuaries research report that outlines techniques for forecasting such large-scale, large-impact, rare events. He will demonstrate that many supposed "black swan" events can actually be forecast.
Mortality for Large Face Amounts
This session is based on a recently published Society of Actuaries research report on mortality at the higher face amounts ($1,000,000 plus). A team of specialists in mortality will bring to light some of the important issues raised in that report and share their insights on these issues. This will be done in a fun Q&A format that will include audience participation.
Delphi Study in Real Time
Organized and cosponsored by the Forecasting and Futurism Section, this session will review the Delphi technique or method and then involve the audience as a Delphi "panel of experts." The audience will answer a series of questions about life and annuity products and product development using polling equipment. The aggregated responses will be shown to the audience, and questions will be repeated in rounds following the Delphi methodology.
Thomas P Edwalds, ACAS, MAA, FSA is an assistant VP of mortality research at Munich American Reassurance Company.