Modeling & Statistical Methods
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Emerging Topics Community: Model Validation 101: Bring your Calculus Mindset!
In this episode, Joe Alaimo interviews Bob Leach to introduce us to the article he has written for the emerging topics community: Model Validation 101: Bring your Calculus Mindset!. Bob describes how the calculus concept of differentiation can be used to validate results from actuarial models. -
Introduction to Bermuda SBA Modeling - Part 2
In this article, we continue to discuss the modeling considerations for Bermuda SBA BEL calculations. -
Quantum Actuarial: Part 1—The Prelude of the Harmonic Oscillator
The quantum harmonic oscillator model, with its rigorous mathematical framework, delineates the statistical probabilities of microscopic particle behavior. When this theory extends into actuarial science, it heralds the potential for interdisciplinary research to achieve effective integration of theoretical innovation and practical application, thereby opening new avenues for research and practice. This study focuses on the innovative connection between the probabilistic properties of the quantum harmonic oscillator and actuarial practice, aiming to dissect how this quantum model reshapes the understanding of actuarial risk assessment and cost distribution. The core of the discussion lies in revealing the intrinsic mechanisms of the quantum harmonic oscillator wave function and its mapping within the actuarial framework, providing an in-depth analysis of innovative perspectives on insurance cost assessment and interest rate patterns. This interdisciplinary research exploration not only tests the theoretical feasibility at the intersection of quantum mechanics and actuarial science but also deeply analyzes the inherent uncertainty in the financial system. With the oscillatory rhythm of the harmonic oscillator, this article anticipates the opening of a new chapter in actuarial science, seeking the actuarial wisdom hidden within the quantum fluctuations. -
Introduction to Bermuda SBA Modeling: Part 1
With this article, we provide an overview of the EBS financial reporting requirements with a focus on the considerations specific to scenario-based approach (SBA) models. -
Maximizing Communication in Excel 365 with Dynamic Arrays, Lambda Functions, and ChatGPT
This article explains the benefits of using Let, Lambda, and Lambda Helper Functions in your Excel workbooks. The benefits discussed are extracting logic from cell references, version-controlling business logic, and using AI to convert logic to other languages for faster development of products. -
Model Validation 101: Bring Your Calculus Mindset!
Ideas for using calculus concepts to validate actuarial models. Focus is on reserve valuation models under PBR. Includes examples based on a simple Excel model. -
Illusion of Rationality
This article explores the fundamental differences between human thinking and the way Large Language Models (LLMs) generate responses. It illustrates how human decision-making involves multiple, often evolving, acceptance criteria, whereas LLMs rely on statistical probabilities to determine the most likely next word. -
Quantum Actuary：Reshaping Insurance Cognition
This article will mainly explore the quantum characteristics in some insurance phenomena. By using the quantum theory, this article will aim to revolutionize traditional insurance thinking, reshape the insurance cognition, and explore the new paths for modern actuarial science. -
Factorization Machines for High Cardinality Features (Part 4 of 4)
This is the fourth in a 4-part series where Anders Larson and Shea Parkes discuss predictive analytics with high cardinality features. In the prior episodes we focused on approaches to handling individual high cardinality features, but these methods did not explicitly address feature interactions. Factorization Machines can responsibly estimate all pairwise interactions, even when multiple high cardinality features are included. With a healthy selection of high cardinality features, a well tuned Factorization Machine can produce results that are more accurate than any other learning algorithm. -
Meet Hybrid Data: A Blend of Alternative and Traditional Data. A Case Study to Construct an Improved Inflation Index
In the following article, I introduce the concept of “hybrid data,” a combination of alternative and traditional data, which I illustrate through an example on inflation, to be of better value than considering purely a traditional data or alternative data source alone. We present a case where we use alternative data from Zillow, to improve upon the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and thus create an index that is more pertinent to consumers and investors alike.
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Dive into insightful content. Gain practical knowledge. Explore the latest research and key information for future use. Discover the Emerging Topics Community, an online forum that focuses on three main topic areas–Modeling, Predictive Analytics and Futurism, and Technology.