SOA Spring Health Meeting: Predictive Modeling Session

SOA Spring Health Meeting: Predictive Modeling Session

By Vincent Kane

On June 8th 2009, actuaries attending the SOA Spring Health Meeting in Toronto will have the opportunity to participate in a predictive modeling session co-sponsored by the Education & Research Section and Health Section of the SOA. Similar predictive modeling sessions have been coordinated for each of the last two Spring Health Meetings and Annual Meetings, each time with a different theme and focus. This particular session's theme may be evident from its title, "Predictive Modeling Hybrids Gaining Increased Mileage." However, very little of the content will concern fuel economy!Predictive models continue to gain traction within health care organizations for a broad range of financial and actuarial applications. Some are "out-of-the-box," commercially available predictive models that had their roots in academic research. Others have been developed entirely by in house researchers coming from a wide range of disciplines. Still others are based on a hybrid model where commercially available models have been recalibrated using other data sources within the enterprise. Finally, the output from predictive models may be used as an input to an entirely separate modeling process.Several case studies will be presented where speakers will discuss how the research process led to selection, recalibration, or creation of a hybrid predictive model. Why was one model chosen over another, and what factors were deemed significant in the model building process? Did modelers have to balance considerations between data availability, model practicality, and parsimony? Were models developed with the end stakeholders and specific business applications in mind? Or do stakeholders try to force an existing model to be the mother of all business solutions?