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Recently Published SOA Research

This page highlights new SOA Research and will be updated periodically.

COVID-19 Research

COVID-19 Research Reports:

COVID-19 Economic and Asset Impact Update, July 31, 2020

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report included a section of statistics that highlight the pandemic’s impact on economies in the U.S. and Canada. This report shows updates through July 29, 2020, to selected graphs from the Economic and Asset Impact section of the comprehensive report.

COVID-19 Key Statistics Update, July 24, 2020

The Society of Actuaries published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report includes a section of Key Statistics. This report shows updates through July 22, 2020, to selected graphs from the Key Statistics section of the comprehensive report.

COVID-19 Return Stages: Deferral and Restarting of Health Care Services, updated July 13, 2020

As part of an upcoming Society of Actuaries research release to model health care costs in 2020 and 2021, a set of “Return Stages” were created in order to define the various level of activities being observed, as well as to contemplate the ways these stages may progress as various cities, counties and states release their own phasing processes for returning their jurisdictions to normal.

U.S. Population Mortality by Race

This report covers historical mortality from 1999-2018 by race as categorized by population data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) WONDER database. Mortality for all deaths and six specific causes of death are considered over this period. Additionally, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced mortality as a whole and this report shows the breakdown of COVID-19 deaths by race.

COVID-19 Key Statistics Update, July 8, 2020

The Society of Actuaries published its first COVID-19 research brief on March 10, 2020, followed by regular updates and expansions through June 12, 2020. The comprehensive report includes a section of Key Statistics. This report shows updates through July 5, 2020, to selected graphs from the Key Statistics section of the comprehensive report.

COVID-19 and Working in Retirement

This report summarizes thoughts and questions about the impact of COVID-19 on working in retirement, phased retirement and how the definition and timing of retirement may change.

COVID-19 Tools and Models:

2021 Health Care Cost Model, updated July 13, 2020

The SOA released a new modeling tool to assess the impact of COVID-19 on health care insurance estimates for 2021. This model and an accompanying research report help illustrate the level of the COVID-19 outbreak, the potential scenarios over the next half year and the direct costs from this pandemic. Access the model report and supporting materials.

A Tool for Tabulating Johns Hopkins University's Coronavirus Database: 7/27/20

The tool uses Johns Hopkins University’s COVID-19 database of cases and deaths as an input. The tool can run user-specified tabulations of the data by region and/or by filtering out locations whose data does not meet user-specified thresholds.

A Model of the Impact of Social Distancing on the Transmission Rate of a Communicable Virus (Updated)

This spreadsheet contains a simple "SIR" model that demonstrates how social distancing could decelerate the transmission of a communicable virus.

New COVID-19 Pulse Surveys:

COVID-19 New Business and Product Survey Summary of Results, Updated July 30, 2020

The goal of this survey is to collect and disseminate information on best practices around sales and the issuance of new business. This is a follow up to a similar survey fielded in April of this year and seeks to update participants regarding changes in practices and viewpoints since April.

COVID-19 Mortality Modeling Survey Updated July 9, 2020

This report contains a summary of the results of the second survey on best practices in monitoring and modeling the potential impact of COVID-19 mortality on life insurance industry claims.

Research Insights Podcast, New COVID-19 Episodes:

COVID-19 Key Statistics Update, July 24, 2020
Listen to Lisa A. Schilling, FSA, EA, FCA, AAA, SOA Retirement Research Actuary discuss the COVID-19 Key Statistics Update, July 24, 2020 with host, R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA, SOA Managing Director of Research.

COVID-19 and Working in Retirement
Listen to Anna Rappaport, FSA, Chair of the SOA’s Committee on Post-Retirement Needs and Risks and the Aging and Retirement Steering Committee, Steven Siegel, ASA, SOA Senior Practice Research Actuary, and host, R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA, SOA Managing Director of Research discuss the COVID-19 and Working in Retirement research report.

The Impact of COVID-19 in Brazil
Listen to Ronald Poon Affat, FSA, FIA, MAAA, CEO of RGA Brazil discuss the impact of COVID-19 in Brazil with host, R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA, SOA Managing Director of Research.

2021 Health Care Cost Model
Listen to Michael Cohen, PhD, Senior Consultant at Wakely Consulting and Achilles Natsis, FSA, MAAA, FLMI, SOA Health Research Actuary discuss the 2021 Health Care Cost Model with host, R. Dale Hall, FSA, CERA, MAAA, CFA, SOA Managing Director of Research.

To see all COVID-19 research, go to SOA.org, click on the Research tab and click on "COVID-19" on the Research by Topic drop down menu.

Additional New SOA Research:

The CPP Take-Up Decision: Risks and Opportunities

The Society of Actuaries’ and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to make available a research report investigating the financial consequences of delaying Canadian Pension Plan (CPP) payments. The report was authored by Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald.

Principle-Based Reserves Simplified Methods

This new research investigates simplified methods for determining reserves under VM-20. In addition to the research report, the multi-risk scenario generator software developed as part of the study is available.

U.S. Historical Population Mortality Rates 2000-2018

The SOA presents historical U.S. population mortality rates by gender and single year of age for calendar years 2000-2018. To develop these rates, the SOA relied upon data furnished by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, the U.S. Census Bureau, and the Social Security Administration. A document summarizing key observations and the process used to develop the rates, along with a table of the rates themselves is included.

Actuarial Weather Extremes

See the new June 2020 report which focuses on a wet middle Atlantic U.S. and a dry central and northeast U.S., a rare western U.S. derecho (a line of intense, widespread, and fast-moving windstorms and sometimes thunderstorms that moves across a great distance and is characterized by damaging winds), and high arctic temperatures.

Impact of COVID-19 on Aging and Retirement – Essay Collection

Will Retirement Change Due to COVID-19? by Linda Koco has been added to the essay collection. Review all the essays.

2020 Living to 100 Monograph

The latest addition to the 2020 Living to 100 Monograph, Session 4A Mortality Patterns with authors Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher, James W. Vaupel and Francisco Villavicencio and discussant, Erwin J. Tan has been posted. Review all the outputs thus far.

Life Expectancy Comparison

One-page comparisons of life expectancy at age 65 using various mortality tables. A separate page shows comparisons of life expectancy at age 25.

Questions Or Comments?

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to research@soa.org.