2024 SOA ImpACT Conference - Session 5D: Climate Risk Track Session D: Gazing into the Climate Crystal Ball 10.29.24 Recording

When it comes to climate-related risks, what does the future hold? Will we see a rise in global temperature of 3 degrees Celsius or more, or can we keep it to less than 1.5 degrees? Will we see ambitious climate policies instituted globally in the near future, or will the status quo prevail, leading to irreversible changes to the climate and more severe physical risks? As actuaries, we are accustomed to planning for an uncertain future, but assessing the long-term impact of climate change poses a unique challenge. There are several public institutions developing scenarios like those above and others, which can help actuaries understand and assess the risks posed by a changing climate. Through scenario analysis, organizations can consider a range of possible outcomes to inform decision-making. Scenario analysis can be qualitative or quantitative, and there is no uniform framework that is currently being used by organizations that are studying the impact of climate change on their business. At the end of this session, participants will be able to: - Describe future climate scenarios. - Describe how actuaries can use scenario analysis to assess the impact of climate change and climate policies. - Explain why actuaries might use scenario analysis to understand climate risk.