This video, by Aree Bly, examines how an individual’s personal tolerance for ambiguity, need for closure, and cognitive biases influence their approach to analyzing, making decisions, and leading in uncertain situations. It emphasizes self-awareness and calibration—understanding when you may rush to closure, avoid ambiguity, or leave others without direction—and offers tools to recognize and manage biases such as confirmation, information, status quo, and outcome bias. The video also highlights how actuaries can unintentionally create ambiguity for others through hedging language, jargon, and implicit assumptions. Overall, it stresses that navigating ambiguity effectively starts with personal insight and clearer, more intentional communication.
Contributors: Aree Bly; Jon Forster, ASA, MAAA