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Impact of GLP-1 Drugs under the Medicare Program – Developing An Actuarial Evaluation Framework

Background and Purpose

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and similar drugs are experiencing a tremendous increase in demand, especially as their use cases expand. GLP-1 drugs were originally designed to help treat diabetes but now are approved by the Food and Drug Administration for treating other conditions prevalent in the U.S., such as obesity.

GLP-1 drugs are being used to treat qualified individuals and the impact from such drug use would presumably include reductions in medical costs due to improved health. Recognizing various clinical / financial studies have been performed on GLP-1 drugs already, this research instead will focus on developing an actuarial framework focusing specifically on individuals 65 and older covered under the Medicare program.

Research Objective

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute is seeking researchers to develop an actuarial framework to study the impact of GLP-1 drugs on obesity using actual Medicare data. The research will examine changes in medical and drug costs for Medicare members due to the use of GLP-1 drugs within the timeframe selected.

A practical actuarial framework would be developed, starting with data selection, timeframe of the study, definition and selection of variables and assumptions. The final material would include options that an actuary could consider at each step of the process and considerations that would help the actuary with various elements of a study. The goal is to produce an actuarial roadmap that can be adapted by actuaries to analyze their own data. It is also desired that Illustrative examples be provided from actual data to help guide practicing actuaries to develop their own models.

The framework would suggest various methods of segmenting the population by gender, age bands, BMI (body mass index), one or more comorbidities (various chronic conditions) and develop methods to study costs before and after GLP-1 drug use. The framework could consider varying degrees of compliance with the prescribed medication as well as the impact on various stakeholders. Like most actuarial studies it is expected that the analysis would consider different time horizons as applicable and include sensitivity testing of key modeling assumptions. The results could be displayed as a table showing the impact across various scenarios with a range of results showing low, medium and high impact across gender, age bands, multiple comorbidities with varying degrees of acuity.

GLP-1 drugs have been used to treat various other diseases ─ cardiovascular disease, Type 2 Diabetes, sleep apnea, chronic kidney disease, metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) and Alzheimer’s disease. The material should include discussion on how the framework could be extended in the future to other diseases as clinical evidence and regulatory indications evolve. This should include clear distinction between FDA-approved uses and emerging or investigational areas of study.

Proposal Requirements

To facilitate the evaluation of proposals, the following information should be submitted:

  1. Resumes of the researcher(s), including any graduate student(s) expected to participate, indicating how their background, education and experience bear on their qualifications to undertake the research. If more than one researcher is involved, a single individual should be designated as the lead researcher and primary contact. The person submitting the proposal must be authorized to speak on behalf of all the researchers as well as for the firm or institution on whose behalf the proposal is submitted.

  2. An outline of the approach to be used (e.g. literature search, model, etc.) emphasizing issues that require special consideration. Details should be given regarding the techniques to be used, collateral material to be consulted, and possible limitations of the analysis.

  3. A description of the expected deliverables and any supporting data, tools or other resources to be used.

  4. Cost estimates for the research, including computer time, salaries, report preparation, material costs, etc. Such estimates can be in the form of hourly rates, but in such cases, time estimates should also be included. Any guarantees as to total cost should be given and will be considered in the evaluation of the proposal. While cost will be a factor in the evaluation of the proposal, it will not necessarily be the decisive factor.

    As a guide for developing project budgets, please review the Historical Project Cost Guide (see Appendix).

    Please note that as a policy, the SOA Research Institute generally does not provide funding to cover academic institution overhead expenses.

  5. A schedule for completion of the research, identifying key dates or time frames for research completion and report submissions. The SOA is interested in completing this project in a timely manner. Suggestions in the proposal for ensuring timely delivery, such as fee adjustments, are encouraged.

  6. Other related factors that give evidence of a proposer’s capabilities to perform in a superior fashion should be detailed.

Selection Process

The SOA will appoint a Project Oversight Group (POG) to oversee the project. The POG is responsible for recommending to the Community Research Committee the proposal to be funded, if any. Input from other knowledgeable individuals also may be sought, but the Community Research Committee will make the final recommendation, subject to Society of Actuaries Research Institute (SOA) leadership approval. An SOA staff research actuary will provide staff actuarial support.

Questions

Any questions regarding this RFP should be directed to Research-AR@soa.org with the subject line Impact of GLP-1 Drugs under the Medicare Program – Developing An Actuarial Evaluation Framework RFP.

Notification of Intent to Submit Proposal

If you intend to submit a proposal, please email written notification by April 1, 2026 to Research-AR@soa.org with the subject line Impact of GLP-1 Drugs under the Medicare Program – Developing An Actuarial Evaluation Framework.

Submission of Proposal

Please email your proposal to Research-AR@soa.org with the subject line Impact of GLP-1 Drugs under the Medicare Program – Developing An Actuarial Evaluation Framework ; proposals must be received no later than April 15, 2026. It is anticipated that all proposers will be informed of the status of their proposal by the end of June 2026.

Conditions

The selection of a proposal is conditioned upon and not considered final until a Letter of Agreement is executed by both the Society of Actuaries Research Institute and the researcher.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute reserves the right to not award a contract for this research. Reasons for not awarding a contract could include, but are not limited to, a lack of acceptable proposals or a finding that insufficient funds are available. The Society of Actuaries Research Institute also reserves the right to redirect the project as is deemed advisable.

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute plans to hold the copyright to the research and to publish the results with appropriate credit given to the researcher(s).

The Society of Actuaries Research Institute may choose to seek public exposure or media attention for the research. By submitting a proposal, you agree to cooperate with the [Society of Actuaries/sponsoring entity] in publicizing or promoting the research and responding to media requests.

The Society of Actuaries may also choose to market and promote the research to members, candidates and other interested parties. You agree to perform promotional communication requested by the Society of Actuaries, which may include, but is not limited to, leading a webcast on the research, presenting the research at an SOA meeting, and/or writing an article on the research for an SOA newsletter.

Conflict of Interest

You agree to disclose any of your material business, financial and organizational interests and affiliations which are or may be construed to be reasonably related to the interest, activities and programs of the Society of Actuaries or the Society of Actuaries Research Institute.

Appendix

The cost ranges below are intended as a guide for budgeting project costs for proposals in response to SOA Research Institute Request for Proposals (RFP). Please note these figures span the 33rd to 66th percentiles for all projects as well as projects that involve a specific approach (lit review, survey, etc.). They are based on historical costs over several recent years. Expected costs for some RFPs may fall outside these ranges depending on the nature of the work and resources required for completion.

All Contracted Projects

This category includes all contracted projects that the Institute has undertaken within the last several years. The 33rd – 66th percentile project costs range is $25,000 – $50,000.

Literature Reviews

This category includes projects that involved only a literature review or the cost for the portion of a larger project that included a literature review. The 33rd – 66th percentile project costs range is $15,000 – $20,000.

Surveys

This category includes all projects that had a survey as their primary component. The 33rd-66th percentile project costs range is $28,000 – $55,000.