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The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute Releases Updated Mortality Study for U.S. Public Pension Plans

Windsor, CT, and Chicago, IL, July 22, 2025 — The Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Retirement Plans Experience Committee, in collaboration with LIMRA, have published a study that examines mortality experience within U.S. public-sector pension plans.

The Pub-2016 Public Retirement Plans Mortality Tables Report offers a comprehensive review and development of mortality tables to provide new insights into sex-specific pension mortality, segmented by key factors such as job category, geographic region, and income level.

The Pub-2016 study is the latest phase of SOA’s ongoing research into public retirement system mortality; an effort conducted approximately every five years. This most recent analysis is based on an extensive dataset spanning calendar years 2013–2019, intentionally excluding 2020 to avoid data affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on a weighted average of the exposures included in the study, the rates in the tables should be considered as one-year mortality probabilities as of July 1, 2016.

Key Findings Include:

  • Pension Costs Drop Slightly for Most Public Workers: Compared to the Pub-2010 report, the Pub-2016 Mortality Tables result in a 0.5% to 1.0% decrease in estimated pension liabilities for most public sector employees.
  • Male Public Safety Workers See Slight Cost Increase: Male public safety employees (e.g., police and firefighters) are expected to live longer under the new tables, causing pension liabilities for this group to increase by just over 1.0%.
  • Weighing by Salary/Pension Amount Changes the Picture:
    • Female pension liabilities are 0.3% to 1.4% lower.
    • Male pension liabilities are 1.0% to 3.3% lower.
  • Teacher Groups Carry Higher Liabilities: Teachers have higher estimated pension liabilities than public safety or general employees. The comparison of liabilities for public safety vs. general employees varies by age and gender, with neither group having consistently higher or lower liabilities.
  • Income Level and Sex Both Matter:
    • Higher-income employees have higher pension liabilities.
    • Impact is greater for men than women.
    • Teachers are less affected by income level than other job groups.

In total, 41 public pension systems contributed data covering 100 individual plans. The final dataset includes approximately 58 million life-years of exposure and 774,000 deaths across the U.S. To examine mortality differences by employment type, contributing systems were asked to classify members into job categories, including teachers, public safety personnel, or general employees.

“The Pub-2016 Public Retirement Plans Mortality Tables Report is an extensive study and the result of ongoing collaboration between the SOA Research Institute and LIMRA,” said Patrick Nolan, FSA, MAAA, Director of Experience Studies, SOA Research Institute. “The report provides in-depth analysis, offering new perspectives on sex-specific pension mortality and findings related to other factors such as job category, geographic region, and income level.”

The Retirement Plans Experience Committee encourages all stakeholders in the financial management of U.S. public-sector retirement plans to carefully review the findings presented in this report. The tables developed in this study are suitable for use under Actuarial Standard of Practice No. 27 (ASOP 27) as relevant published mortality tables, particularly when adjusted using appropriate credibility techniques. For most pension-related actuarial applications, the Committee recommends projecting with an appropriate mortality improvement scale, and that generational projection should be considered as an approach for projecting future mortality rates, in accordance with ASOP 27 standards. Access the full report here.

About LIMRA

Established in 1916, LIMRA is a research and professional development not-for-profit trade association for the financial services industry. More than 600 insurance and financial services organizations around the world rely on LIMRA’s research and educational solutions to help them make bottom-line decisions with greater confidence. Companies look to LIMRA for its unique ability to help them understand their customers, markets, distribution channels and competitors and leverage that knowledge to develop realistic business solutions. To learn more, visit limra.com.

About the SOA

With roots dating back to 1889, the Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world’s largest actuarial professional organization with more than 34,000 actuaries as members. Through research and education, the SOA’s mission is to advance actuarial knowledge and enhance actuaries’ ability to provide expert advice and relevant solutions for financial, business and societal challenges. The SOA’s vision is for actuaries to be the leading professionals in measuring and managing risk. To learn more, visit soa.org.