US Individual Life Mortality Improvement Models and Analysis Tools
Authors
SOA Individual Life Experience Committee
Mortality Improvement Analysis Subgroup
Description
This study was developed by the Mortality Improvement Analysis Subgroup of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) Research Institute’s Individual Life Experience Committee (ILEC). The purpose of this study is to present a methodology for estimating mortality improvement factors based on data from insured lives. This study is not meant to produce a proposed set of mortality improvement factors for any specific purpose; rather, actuaries can use this study as a starting point for their work on mortality improvement and add further refinements as they see fit.
There is an Excel workbook to support the results in this study. There is also a set of predictive models that were developed to help identify key variables which had a significant impact on mortality.
Materials
U.S. Individual Life Mortality Improvement Analysis Report
U.S. Individual Life Mortality Improvement Analysis Tool
Mortality Improvement Predictive Models
Mortality Improvement Summary SQL Code
Reference Sources
Mortality by Socioeconomic Category in the United States
Individual Life Insurance Mortality Improvement Scale – for Use with AG38/VM20 - 2023
MIB-NAIC Combined Data - 10/16/2023 – Final (Available to members of the Society of Actuaries by request)
Acknowledgements
The SOA Research Institute’s deepest gratitude goes to the Subgroup for their diligent work to design the study, analyze the results, and draft this report, as well as to those who peer reviewed this report for accuracy and relevance.
Subgroup members:
Philip Adams, FSA, CERA, MAAA (Predictive Models)
Mark Rosa, ASA (Mortality Improvement Analysis Tool)
Peer reviewers:
Anshita Dogra, FSA, MAAA, CERA, MS
Lucas Embrey, Actuarial Student
Craig Rolling, PhD
At the Society of Actuaries Research Institute:
Korrel Crawford, Senior Research Administrator
Kathryn Eubank, FSA, MAAA, Senior Experience Studies Actuary
Cynthia MacDonald, FSA, MAAA, Senior Director of Experience Studies
Peter Miller, ASA, MAAA, Experience Studies Actuary
At LIMRA:
Marianne Purushotham, FSA, MAAA
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