Log in / My SOA

Quarterly Global Warming Report

January 2026

Author

Patrick Wiese, ASA

Executive Summary

This report presents a statistical analysis of global warming trends and is updated quarterly to reflect the latest available air and sea surface temperature data. The previous edition analyzed data from January 1960 through September 2025; this update extends the analysis through December 2025. All results are based on the ERA5 reanalysis dataset produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF).

A key metric in this report is the estimated temperature trend, expressed in degrees Fahrenheit per decade and calculated using linear regression over rolling 30-year periods. Thirty years is widely regarded as sufficient to smooth the effects of short-term climate variability—such as El Niño and La Niña events—that can temporarily influence global temperatures. Figure 1 summarizes estimated trends across successive 30-year periods for global air temperature (average across Earth’s entire surface), air temperature over land, and sea surface temperature. Confidence intervals associated with these results are presented in the main body of the report.

Figure 1

Temperature Trends Estimated Using Linear Regression Across 30-Year Periods

2026-01-cc205-fig1.jpg

Key observations from Figure 1 include:

  • Estimated warming rates have increased across successive 30-year periods, consistent with an acceleration in global warming. For the most recent 30-year period, the estimated trend in global air temperature is approximately 0.48°F per decade.
  • The warming rate over land exceeds that of sea surface temperature, consistent with the greater heat capacity of water (relative to air) and the vertical mixing of heat within the ocean.
  • Due in part to hemispheric differences in land-ocean distribution, land areas in the Northern Hemisphere are warming at a faster rate than those in the Southern Hemisphere.

Later sections of this report show that, within the Northern Hemisphere, warming rates are strongly correlated with latitude, with the fastest warming observed in the Arctic region.

Along with this report, an updated Excel workbook has been released. The workbook contains the ERA5 temperature data used in the analysis, along with regression and graphing tools that allow users to reproduce and explore the temperature trend results presented in the report.

Materials

Quarterly Warming Report 2025 Q4

Quarterly Warming Report Data Analysis Workbook

Interactive Tableau map of temperature data

Suggested Citation

Wiese, Patrick. Quarterly Global Warming Report. Society of Actuaries Research Institute, January 2026. https://www.soa.org/resources/research-reports/2024/quarterly-global-warming/

Questions or Comments?

Give us your feedback! Take a short survey on this report. Take Survey

If you have comments or questions, please send an email to Research@soa.org