Description: This article introduces a non-traditional type of economic scenario generator that relies on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are complex macroeconomics models and have been increasingly popular in central banks for analyzing monetary policies.

Description: This article is part of a 2 part series on real options analysis (ROA). Before you can understand the limitations of ROA, you must first understand the difference between risk and uncertainty. This article goes into detail explaining the vast differences between the two phenomena.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: This article is the second installment in a three-part series on economic scenario generators (“ESGs”). Part I was published in the November 2019 issue. Part II addresses critical considerations in selecting, building, using, and validating ESGs. The article discusses key criteria in understanding ESGs including: - Risk factors - Scenario type - Process and parameterization - Calibration - Number of scenarios - Timing considerations

Description: This article provides an overview of behavioral economic theory as it relates to health and welfare insurance plans and provides summaries of two sample applications of the theories: enrollment in health insurance exchanges created by the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, and product design considerations in light of vast health illiteracy.

Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Many retirement actuaries have experience developing, implementing, and monitoring Liability Driven Investing (LDI) strategies for plan sponsors. These strategies typically involve modifying a plan’s investment strategy to remove a significant portion of the investment and interest rate risk now or at some point in the future when specific triggers are met. The tactics often involve the use of fixed income assets to cash flow and/or duration match the liabilities. In the spirit of helping actuaries expand their roles in an evolving defined contribution world, this article explores the application of LDI and derisking strategies within defined contribution and individual retirement accounts. The economic theory behind this approach is called the lifecycle hypothesis, or lifecycle finance. The benefits of the lifecycle finance method are that it provides a safe approach to save for retirement and a secure source of floor income during retirement. Similar to pension plans, each individual has his or her own idiosyncratic needs, wants, and risks that should be considered. Actuaries are uniquely situated to help defined contribution plan sponsors, individuals, and even themselves implement the lifecycle finance approach by developing and distributing tools and methods that focus on income (rather than wealth), LDI strategies, and personalization.

Description: The CAS is pleased to present its Research Paper, “Users’ Guide to Economic Scenario Generation in Property-Casualty Insurance”. Although there are cases in the literature about the use of economic scenario generators (ESGs) in the property casualty industry, they are far more commonly used for life insurance companies. Our hope is that this paper will serve as a comprehensive guide to the implementation of ESGs in the non-life space and spark interest in research into new applications of ESGs.

Description: When designing and pricing a healthcare product, it is not only important to know how to model frequency and severity, but it is essential to understand human behavior. Of course, the issue of anti-selection in medical insurance is well known as individuals know more about their health and prior expenditures than an insurer does. This type of behavior is certainly rational, and to be expected.